Cart (0)
VIDEOExclusive Interview: Harry Dent's Outlook on Demographics, Debt, and Deflation
By
Brett Owens Sep 03, 2010 3:30 pm
The demographic trend expert and economic researcher expects a major bottom in the stock market sometime around 2012 that will take out previous lows.
 |
|
I had intended to record and post the conversation, which was very lively (Harry gives a great interview), but unfortunately I botched the recording! When I went to play it back afterward -- nothing at all. Argh!
But, we can’t let that keep us down. It would have been easier for me to post an MP3, but hey, my loss is your gain! I took copious notes, and I’ve been following Dent’s research for a bit now, so here’s a very detailed summary of our interview, and some topical background info in case you’re new to his brand of demographic analysis.
Harry Dent’s Previous Successful Bull Market and Depression Predictions
Beginning in the late 1980s, Dent began touting a bull market in US stocks that would go higher and further than most believed. He reiterated that call in 1992 -- a time when many analysts were very bearish (hard to believe in hindsight, but true -- many bestselling investing book titles from the early '90s were doom and gloom).
Impressively, he stayed bullish during the early to mid 2000s -- again a time when many (including me) thought the stock market bubble had burst once and for all. Dent’s analysis told him that there was one big last gasp for the party, thanks to boomer spending hitting its peak. (Note: He did have some very high price targets on the Dow that weren't hit -- some folks are a bit down on him for this, but I think that’s missing the point of his research. Longer-term index-price predictions are very difficult. I’m more concerned with accurately predicting the direction of the trend -- and he’s been quite spot-on in this regard.)
Dent’s longer-term warning alongside these bullish predictions, though, has always been that another Great Depression would follow the boom of the '90s and '00s, sometime from 2007-09. Now, right on schedule, we’re on the other side of the boom/bust peak -- and into our current depression.
As you can see from the chart above, consumer spending peaked in 2008, and is heading downward. According to Dent’s research, this trend should be in play for some time. Why? Glad you asked…
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
