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Random Thoughts: Bears Watching Their Backs


You can't blame Boo for constantly checking over his shoulder.

  • I'm blogging and I can't get up!

  • After yesterday's kick-save and a beaut, Bonnie and the Bulls are looking for an old fashioned Turnaround Tuesday. S&P 1500 remains the first level of lore but S&P 1490 is the more valuable turf.

  • We discussed yesterday that the more a level is tested, the weaker it becomes. I didn't sense that S&P 1490 was dutifully probed but I won't be as certain the next time we get there.

  • Long distance runner, what you standing there for? I spent a fair amount of time--including the first half of Sunday's Pats-Colts game and the better part of yesterday--trying to communicate the nuances of the current financial conundrum. I think the morning missive sorta sums it up.

  • Is Hoofy gonna do the same with this morning's rally?

  • As I was recovering from my 6:30 AM kick-boxing trainer (yes, he continues to win despite not fighting back), there was a fellow on Bloomberg TV talking about how inconsequential these credit flares are in the grand scheme of things. He is right-on the surface-but under the surface, there are five hundred trillion reasons why he could be wrong.

  • We don't "do" rumors in the 'Ville but as it's been going around--in addition to being reflected in the price action--I'll share that the Goldman Sachs (GS) chatter is alive and well.

  • The story, so you hear it-and obviously not confirmed-is that GS is going to announce a 15% provisional" write-down on its Level III assets. As of last reports, its Level III assets were $72 billion so doing the math, we arrive at roughly $11 billion. After trading this name seven ways (and two-sided), I'm not involved at present.

  • I would also toss November 15th on ye radar and familiarize yourself with "SFAS 157," which is either a slant route for Randy Moss or a FASB guideline aimed at disclosing off-balance sheet holdings.

  • Happy Birthday to the Margarita Maven, who turned (a very young) 87 today and is heading to the track to play some ponies. Every day is a blessing, Grandma-thank you for being you.

  • Reading through these Hovnanian (HOV) headlines, I can't help but think that "the news is always worst at the bottom." Problem is, while the housing market is in the dumps, the broader market remains lofty. That makes nibblage more dicey than it would otherwise be.

  • Yeah, but can he do this naked?

  • So Elmer, Soros and Gross (oh my) are all sounding warning flares? Yeah, they've done it before (as have I) so keep it in perspective. If you are concerned about the schvitz hitting the fan, however, you may wanna look at some consumer non-durables as relative bets.

  • The Following Buzz took place between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM

    Banana Peel Alert?

    Not sure, Magilla, but see the gorillas that are Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH) and Mother Morgan (MS) slippin' and sliding. We knew, OK, we sensed that a probe was intuitive and we're getting it now.

    Watch these names, Minyans, particularly as breadth flips negative in both the S's and N's.

  • "I don't think I want to know a six-year-old who isn't a dreamer, or a sillyheart. And I sure don't want to know one who takes their student career seriously!" I hear ya UB, but I'll offer that they're not mutually exclusive endeavors. Whatamy talking about? MV Kids, which is kicking and screaming and ready to birth...

  • You can't blame Boo for constantly checking over his shoulder. However, while I love a good conspiracy theory, yesterday's Snapper likely had more to do with everyone and their sister staring at support. Once the seven-figure sized buyers stepped in, we saw an offer vacuum to the upside.

  • As goes the piggies, so goes the poke? Watch this zone in the BKX, dating back to Y2K. It sorta, hasta hold in here (gulp). If and when it does, BKX 101.50, the former floor, is the new ceiling.

  • Professor Bennet "Blue Steel" Sedacca has been all over the bubble comparisons between the Nazz (circa 2000), homebuilders and . He's introduced a new player into the game and it's not gonna make alotta folks happy. Yep, it's Google (GOOG). And charts don't lie.

  • Deep breath, Minyans-and chill. By the time you get to where you wanna go, the journey will have already ended.


Holiday Festivus is here! Come join us and support the Ruby Peck Foundation For Children's Education at an old-fashioned Southern-style hoe-down in the heart of New York City on December 7th. Click the image below to learn more!

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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