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Cause and Effect

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Historical cycles of fear are a statistical reality in the second half of a seven year...

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Because the DJIA has traced out a pattern parallel to other tops such as the M-A top in 1957...

Because the S&P weekly shows five waves up from October '05...

Because the S&P has off-set the July 12 breakout bar leaving a Boomerang sell signal as it smacks back through its June highs...

Because the market has put some time on the side...

Because historical cycles of fear are a statistical reality in the second half of a "seven" year...

Because Goldman Sachs (GS) is telling me something is rotten in Denmark below its 200 day moving average. According to Bloomberg, credit-default swaps on GS, Bear Stearns (BSC) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) are trading sharply higher today, a sign of deterioration in investor confidence over the companies' creditworthiness.

Because virtually all the bears I know covered substantial short positions yesterday morning -- the learned and correct posture until proven otherwise...

Because the market is diabolical in its perverseness it follows that it would open down out of the blue and perhaps just keep on going...

Because surprises happen in the direction of the trend and the trend has given some evidence of turning...

Because I prefer to believe what I see...

Because the hard thing to do would be to short the first bounce here (maybe that was yesterday?). It is probably the right thing to do given the big picture...

Because the market has always come back and we have all become accustomed to Pavlov's bark...

Because in 1987 when the market started down in October there was a consensus that the picture was the same as the bullish correction five months prior...

Because of these things:

  • I am not a buyer here.

  • I do not think this is an opportunity.

  • The more they say in the media that this is because of oil and housing, the more I am convinced that there is an event we are not hearing about.

  • In 1998, the public never really heard the truth until three months later... at/near the bottom.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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