Euro Zone, IMF Save Greece -- For Now

By Matt Theal May 03, 2010 8:40 am

The struggling country will get €110 billion in exchange for massive budget cuts.



On Sunday night, the euro-zone countries and the International Monetary Fund agreed to extend Greece €110 billion ($147 billion) in return for massive budget cuts.

In the three-year deal, Greece will receive €80 billion in loans from euro-zone members and €30 billion from the IMF. The bailout makes certain that Greece will be able to meet its funding needs, €8.5 billion due May 19.

Receiving the aid is the easy party, implementing the austerity cuts will be difficult for Greece. According to a Wall Street Journal article, Greece has promised to cut public sector wages and pensions, raise the average retirement age, increase value-added taxes, deregulate labor markets, cut public investment, cut the budget deficit by 11% of GDP by 2013, reduce the budget deficit “well below” 3% of GDP by 2014, and have a primary budget surplus of at least 5% of GDP by 2020.

With the austerity cuts laid out and a liquidity crisis avoided, Goldman Sachs strategist Erik Nielsen shared the fresh risks in a research note to clients, “(1) Implementation of the program in the face of a social unrest; (2) the likely need for further adjustments when/if GDP doesn’t respond as expected; and (3) European approval of the second phase of their part of the package (which will emerge in their fiscal bills for the next two years).”

After the largest IMF bailout ever, it seems that Greece is safe, for now. But what happens when a country that is too big to fail, fails?

From the Bull Pen: Over the past week, Gold has traded strong and it's starting to attract the chartists who are looking for a breakout. Those looking for portfolio insurance could consider Gold ETF (GLD) or Goldminers ETF (GDX) here as a long. As for the stop, I'd give it more room than normal, maybe 5%, as Gold has a way of shaking the weak hands out.


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From the Bear Cave: The leader of the market has been retail stocks. On Friday, the Retail ETF (XRT) finally broke its 20-DMA after three attempts on heavy volume. I would expect a snapback, but those bearish could consider shorting the ETF on a snapback above its 20-DMA. A buy stop can be placed at $45.


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