Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks

By Jeff Macke Jul 13, 2009 12:10 pm
Blackjack's a safer bet than Wynn, MGM.
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Greetings from New York, where this column is either cursed or blessed -- fate will tell us, and we're powerless to control it. When I started, I was writing about doing research while gambling and generally living in as debauched a way as a parent can when he’s on vacation with the wife, the kids, and the nanny. The goal was to learn the truth about the economy at an upscale resort in the Bahamas during the off-season.

Does it seem loony to travel to the sultry Caribbean at the end of June? On the surface, yes. So is driving a $95,000 sports car, owning a bachelor pad in the Hamptons, and driving an SUV big enough to hold your other SUV. In good times, lunatic debauchery is the point of working 70 hours a week jockeying stocks. In bad times, saving is hip.

As far as visiting the Caribbean in the off-season goes, the East Coast has had 5 times the number of lousy, rainy, grim days as it has sunny ones so far this year. According to the NY Times,  NYC had twice as much rain in June as it does on average. Sadly, I can’t even go to Eddie Bauer (EBHIQ) and buy cool outerwear to protect myself from the deluge. Eddie has great prices, but the return policy gives me pause -- as does the “Everything Must Go!” feel.

I needed a break in the worst way, and it was either Atlantic City -- with its felt jumpsuits and gold chains and all their implications -- or the actual Atlantic -- with its own genuine natives but top-flight service. Had I been allowed to bet my own decision (which is how first SEC Chairman Joe Kennedy built his first fortune, as I understand it) it wouldn’t have been close. The Mackes were gathering their passports and heading south.

Of course, I can’t take a full conventional vacation. I can’t relax. That’s not a boast, not braggadocio -- and frankly nothing to be proud of. It’s closer to a form of obsessive-compulsive disorder. Regardless, I see stock buys and sells everywhere I go. I run odds for outcomes on everything, from check-out times (it’s about the number of coupons and seniors, not the number of customers) to whether or not I should let my kids beat me at Nintendo (NTDOY) Wii games -- generally not an issue since they usually beat me whether I like it or not.

As a mental tick, it's not exactly productive. But setting silly markets and then seeing whether I'd have won or lost has its uses.

For instance, the questions every casino visit raises are these: Can I make more money trading off what I find on my trip than the MIT brats who 'broke Vegas' by counting cards? At the very least, can I find a trade that pays for my trip? Every trip I make to a casino, I'm obsessed with paying for the trip -- either at the tables or with a trade -- inside of 30 days. It’s in my head, on the tip of my tongue, and all but pouring out my nose -- to the point that it’s white noise to Mrs. Jeffmacke (as is most of what I say).

Because I see possible trades anywhere and everywhere I go, a casino is for me what the Library of Congress is for a researcher: Bliss. (And with free drinks and oxygen pumped into the building.)

The MIT kids were suckers. The risk-reward of cheating at cards is simply terrible; an arrest and/or beating on the downside versus a pay-off of a few grand, taxed to the hilt. I couldn’t care less if a 17-year-old in a fake mustache makes $5,000. I’m looking for the big game: Is real spending happening at a greater rate than the market believes?

To demonstrate the value of the exercise, from late April to early May I shared with Minyanville readers long trades in Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn (WYNN), and MGM (MGM) that more or less paid for this summer of partially engaged bliss. (See the post titled Macau Losing Bet.) I made enough to pay a kid to take my MCAT, then write my way into medical school. Card-counting types, go play Dungeons and Dragons -- we’re playing a grown-up game here.

The stakes are high. Patience is a must. Pay attention -- here are the rules:
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.



(18)
2009-07-13 12:25:12
Atlantis
Mr. Macke:

I spent three weeks at the Atlantis this spring doing a TV show filming. It was a cool place but overcharges for EVERYTHING and I couldn't imagine it in high season. It looked like a fun place for kids to come though.

2009-07-13 12:38:43
Michael Jordan & tipping should never be mentioned in the same sentence. Michael is more known in Vegas as a guy who never leaves a single dollar to any employees, than as a basketball player. He takes cheapskate to a whole new level. As a resident of Vegas I can tell you that foot traffic is up big time. People still aren't gambling as big or spending as much but it has been getting busier every week for the last 2 mos.
2009-07-13 13:47:52
HUH?
You sure talk a big "game" for not understanding how to play blackjack. No wonder they are giving you and Mrs.JeffMacke freebies and comps, you don't play correctly. You really think that guy was suggesting the table "count cards"? You completely missed his point...and you seem to still not have a grasp on reality. Best of luck to you...I hope you get the help you deserve to grab a hold of reality again. best of luck.
2009-07-13 15:07:23
Atlantis
I just returned from there a couple days ago. The staff was rather rude except the people that you typically tip for service. Everything you pay for already has a 15% mandatory gratuity so there is no need for them to go the extra mile.

The casino was very slow-- the only days it was semi busy was on Friday and Saturday night but not crowded at all. If you're looking forward to playing Texas Holdem dont plan on it because they dont offer it.

Money talks- the 1 1/2 hour wait for a table for dinner turned into 10 minutes when they found out we were there for a doctors convention. lol..
2009-07-13 16:09:54
HUH?
Lighten up and read what's written prior to psycho-analyzing me, Austin. I was booking retail. That was the point; not seeking freebies but seeing how the traffic levels are running. If you think I'm taking my kids down to Atlantis an expecting to be mobbed as a former American basic cable personality; you're right, that would have been nuts.

I think the guy was unpleasant company in an environment designed to do nothing but sedate customers while they mindlessly toss their chips onto the felt, not remotely associating the little discs with actual money. To the extent I don't play correctly, the Atlantis should have all but given me a neck-rub until my wallet was empty.

2009-07-13 16:34:15
The off season...
As you I went looking for a deal and shopped around, staying in the good 'ol USA...Heading out the the "Hotel del" in Sandiego in a week or so. From there we will short hop to Vegas for 2 days and then back to simply lay on the beach and forget about dilution for as long as we can. Ah but in the end back to reality we must go.

Neat read thanks for writing it.....The prior poster was wrong, indeed Black Jack as life and finances are a "ME" sport.......I for one will not take "one for the team".....I am out for myself, my kids, my "early" retirement......As of 2 minutes ago I still can-not find my "Audacity of Hope Outlook"....Nope, still is not there....

Cheers,

Dave
2009-07-13 16:38:45
Pump and Dumper
Macke is a pump and dumper. Unlike all the other traders / authors on this site which make their trades known in time for the audience to make a decision to take their trade or not, Macke always makes it known hours later - way too late in this market. Pump and dumper
2009-07-13 16:48:05
Pump and Dumper
Just a thought, and not to be out of line or offensive, why not do your own research and then make your own decisions based on the postings at hand using them as a feedback tool?....

I have read Jeff, Toddo, others, watched them on the tube and said 'eh I don't think so and went by my own accord and have done well....A good sounding board they are but it is indeed my money and my choice....

Grow up and have the outlook of at least a 21 year old....With respect sir.

Dave
2009-07-13 16:55:40
Dave Leach
The fact that somebody else is a pump and dumper does not determine a maturity level of another party. Truth and honesty are mantras of this site. You have drawn way too many conclusions.
2009-07-13 17:08:08
Dave Leach
Maybe so sir, but, I do not depend on the basic truth in word of others as they see it to make my trade....

Be well,

Dave
2009-07-13 17:11:47
Pump and Dumper vs. Family First
I don't think you mean Pump and Dump, which is encouraging readers to get long stocks you're selling to get a better price. You're describing more of the "Magic Trade" where you made money on something you had never before mentioned but somehow profited from during the day.

Pumping and dumping is unthinkable. A reputation isn't worth whatever profits you could make from the practice.

As for the other, in a market this fast, it's literally impossible to stay in front of the trades you're writing about making. BAC was 12.30-something when I bought it, over 12.90 when I sold it and I didn't have time to much look at it in the time between.

I love the attitude Dave is bringing to the game. "That's what those guys think; I disagree".

This market is simply FLYING. Taking your shots to makes your profits is the only way to do this successfully enough to write about it for you.

-JJM
2009-07-13 17:20:54
HUH?
You're truly not making a lot of sense, Macke. And I'm sorry about that. Truly am.

I absolutely loved watching you on CNBC and thought you were one of the good guys---but you really cracked and it's obvious that you need some help. Please get it. This can be a very dangerous situation if not treated properly. I say this from a very good place...

Now...about this trip. You were in the Bahamas and not Vegas---so your rant makes little sense for the casino stocks (especially MGM, WYNN, LVS).

2009-07-13 18:37:26
Barry
You have articulated an observation / trend I've noted here in the 'ville for a while now, venom or anamosity toward the authors of the articles....as if it was a personal affront.
Maybe it is inevitable with the increased numbers of readers, but it sure seems as if the "societal acrimony" theme Toddo talks about is growing stronger, even here.

Jeffmacke..keep up the great writing, always have enjoyed your style, even if the trade isn't to my liking.
2009-07-13 18:45:32
I read every Macke article for 2 reasons
1. I always learn something
2. I laugh copiously throughout (not many people in finance can do that)

respect brother,
T
2009-07-13 21:20:02
It really is amazing that there are so many people who read Minyanville and feel compelled to spew venom in light of what those of us who are charter members and have been here since the beginning know this community is all about. I don't know that these boards are very productive with some of the knuckleheads who like to feel self important by denigrating the professors. Mr. Leach obviously understands that Minyanville is here to educate, and we can take the opinions or leave the opinions of the professors, but ultimately the decisions are ours.

Now for a complement for you. I live in Las Vegas and your column is spot on. Mr. Kelly also gave a good description of what is going on. Lots of people interested in $50 hotel rooms, who bring their coolers and go out to McDonald's for their food. Not the class of people you want if you have a high P/E ratio.

Keep the columns coming and thanks for your take on retail.
2009-07-14 08:35:40
Dave Leach
Again, too many assumptions on your part. My observation does not make me a victim. I too, make my own trades. Toddo, just yesterday, raised attention to the fact that Meredith Whitney's customers knew beforehand what she advised to the masses on CNBC. Was there frontrunning - pumping and dumping??? The point Toddo made was there is a question of ethics.

Same point I made in my original post in this commentary. Too many other folks are tagging on to Macke's trades when he reveals them way too many hours later. Simple, all the other traders on Minyanville give real time reporting on their trades. So too should Macke!!
2009-07-14 16:25:11
Final thought on my part......
I agree with all put forth by Mr. Lieberman. I have become to know MV as a valued tool in a war-chest that enables one to perform in a better fashion, within that same breath I can say I do not agree with some opinions offered, that is a fine aspect really as it entertains my thoughts as to why I dis agree and forces me to re-examine my position....A healthy exercise.

Within any presentation of ones own thoughts or opinions there are going to be those who simply do not agree, the point would be in what way does one express that. Personal attacks, simply posting insulting meaningless diatribe that has no bearing on the original content of the posted article.

Their are several "Professors" that I usually disagree with that I would entertain having an adult beverage and exchanging in a spirited discussion - thoughts and ideas, simply posting disparaging remarks is not my mantra.

Mr. Bean, as a closing thought......I see "assumption" as;
Supposing something or to accept that something is true without checking or confirming it.
That is something I simply do not do day to day, rather I "Infer" which I view as;
To come to a conclusion or form an opinion about something on the basis of evidence or reasoning , I do that daily. I make no excuses for myself or my actions, nor do I accept them from others, while there are exceptions for everything that is a very, very narrow window for me.

Your interjections and opinions have value, or at least they do to you, and I respect that.

This post was not intended as an attempt to defend Jeff Macke , I view him as an intuitive advisor with no agenda, no malice, I appreciate that. He has proven (at least to me) that he is more than capable of taking care of himself, and the day to day markets........Respect from me is hard to earn...He amongst others here have it.

Minyan Dave




2009-07-19 20:47:42
Gotta chime in - allbeit a week late
I was actually in Biloxi on the other Las Vegas / Atlantic City coast where I have made more money playing BJ than I have trading stocks this year - which is both embarrasing to admit but explainable in some ways b/c it's been a great year to play BJ.

Speaking for the third largest gaming mecca in NA, and I did hit each and every casino there in the last two weeks, and have been going once a month or so since New Years, I can definitly say foot traffic went way up in early April around mothers day, petered off around Memorial Day, tailed way off until July 4th when it went gangbusters, then dropped down again. Foot traffic mind you, not gambling. Gamblers were few and far between and drunk college kids dont toke the till for the dealers.

No matter where I ate, or where I went, no one was spending money. Foot traffic does not mean revenue.

Back home this weekend, I actually went to Wal Mart on a Saturday at noon, something that is akin to fighting bouncers at a strip club. And I checked right out without waiting in line for a checker to open up, even more shocking because the do it yourself lanes were only taking cash.

Folks, this is deep pooh for retailers. I mean buy your puts now, short the friggin market, we are going down like a French plane speaking Portueguese. It's FUGLY.
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