Don't Gamble On Casino Stocks
Does it seem loony to travel to the sultry Caribbean at the end of June? On the surface, yes. So is driving a $95,000 sports car, owning a bachelor pad in the Hamptons, and driving an SUV big enough to hold your other SUV. In good times, lunatic debauchery is the point of working 70 hours a week jockeying stocks. In bad times, saving is hip.As far as visiting the Caribbean in the off-season goes, the East Coast has had 5 times the number of lousy, rainy, grim days as it has sunny ones so far this year. According to the NY Times, NYC had twice as much rain in June as it does on average. Sadly, I can’t even go to Eddie Bauer (EBHIQ) and buy cool outerwear to protect myself from the deluge. Eddie has great prices, but the return policy gives me pause -- as does the “Everything Must Go!” feel.
I needed a break in the worst way, and it was either Atlantic City -- with its felt jumpsuits and gold chains and all their implications -- or the actual Atlantic -- with its own genuine natives but top-flight service. Had I been allowed to bet my own decision (which is how first SEC Chairman Joe Kennedy built his first fortune, as I understand it) it wouldn’t have been close. The Mackes were gathering their passports and heading south.
Of course, I can’t take a full conventional vacation. I can’t relax. That’s not a boast, not braggadocio -- and frankly nothing to be proud of. It’s closer to a form of obsessive-compulsive disorder. Regardless, I see stock buys and sells everywhere I go. I run odds for outcomes on everything, from check-out times (it’s about the number of coupons and seniors, not the number of customers) to whether or not I should let my kids beat me at Nintendo (NTDOY) Wii games -- generally not an issue since they usually beat me whether I like it or not.
As a mental tick, it's not exactly productive. But setting silly markets and then seeing whether I'd have won or lost has its uses.
For instance, the questions every casino visit raises are these: Can I make more money trading off what I find on my trip than the MIT brats who 'broke Vegas' by counting cards? At the very least, can I find a trade that pays for my trip? Every trip I make to a casino, I'm obsessed with paying for the trip -- either at the tables or with a trade -- inside of 30 days. It’s in my head, on the tip of my tongue, and all but pouring out my nose -- to the point that it’s white noise to Mrs. Jeffmacke (as is most of what I say).
Because I see possible trades anywhere and everywhere I go, a casino is for me what the Library of Congress is for a researcher: Bliss. (And with free drinks and oxygen pumped into the building.)The MIT kids were suckers. The risk-reward of cheating at cards is simply terrible; an arrest and/or beating on the downside versus a pay-off of a few grand, taxed to the hilt. I couldn’t care less if a 17-year-old in a fake mustache makes $5,000. I’m looking for the big game: Is real spending happening at a greater rate than the market believes?
To demonstrate the value of the exercise, from late April to early May I shared with Minyanville readers long trades in Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn (WYNN), and MGM (MGM) that more or less paid for this summer of partially engaged bliss. (See the post titled Macau Losing Bet.) I made enough to pay a kid to take my MCAT, then write my way into medical school. Card-counting types, go play Dungeons and Dragons -- we’re playing a grown-up game here.
The stakes are high. Patience is a must. Pay attention -- here are the rules:
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I spent three weeks at the Atlantis this spring doing a TV show filming. It was a cool place but overcharges for EVERYTHING and I couldn't imagine it in high season. It looked like a fun place for kids to come though.
The casino was very slow-- the only days it was semi busy was on Friday and Saturday night but not crowded at all. If you're looking forward to playing Texas Holdem dont plan on it because they dont offer it.
Money talks- the 1 1/2 hour wait for a table for dinner turned into 10 minutes when they found out we were there for a doctors convention. lol..
I think the guy was unpleasant company in an environment designed to do nothing but sedate customers while they mindlessly toss their chips onto the felt, not remotely associating the little discs with actual money. To the extent I don't play correctly, the Atlantis should have all but given me a neck-rub until my wallet was empty.
Neat read thanks for writing it.....The prior poster was wrong, indeed Black Jack as life and finances are a "ME" sport.......I for one will not take "one for the team".....I am out for myself, my kids, my "early" retirement......As of 2 minutes ago I still can-not find my "Audacity of Hope Outlook"....Nope, still is not there....
Cheers,
Dave
I have read Jeff, Toddo, others, watched them on the tube and said 'eh I don't think so and went by my own accord and have done well....A good sounding board they are but it is indeed my money and my choice....
Grow up and have the outlook of at least a 21 year old....With respect sir.
Dave
Be well,
Dave
Pumping and dumping is unthinkable. A reputation isn't worth whatever profits you could make from the practice.
As for the other, in a market this fast, it's literally impossible to stay in front of the trades you're writing about making. BAC was 12.30-something when I bought it, over 12.90 when I sold it and I didn't have time to much look at it in the time between.
I love the attitude Dave is bringing to the game. "That's what those guys think; I disagree".
This market is simply FLYING. Taking your shots to makes your profits is the only way to do this successfully enough to write about it for you.
-JJM
I absolutely loved watching you on CNBC and thought you were one of the good guys---but you really cracked and it's obvious that you need some help. Please get it. This can be a very dangerous situation if not treated properly. I say this from a very good place...
Now...about this trip. You were in the Bahamas and not Vegas---so your rant makes little sense for the casino stocks (especially MGM, WYNN, LVS).
Maybe it is inevitable with the increased numbers of readers, but it sure seems as if the "societal acrimony" theme Toddo talks about is growing stronger, even here.
Jeffmacke..keep up the great writing, always have enjoyed your style, even if the trade isn't to my liking.
2. I laugh copiously throughout (not many people in finance can do that)
respect brother,
T
Now for a complement for you. I live in Las Vegas and your column is spot on. Mr. Kelly also gave a good description of what is going on. Lots of people interested in $50 hotel rooms, who bring their coolers and go out to McDonald's for their food. Not the class of people you want if you have a high P/E ratio.
Keep the columns coming and thanks for your take on retail.
Same point I made in my original post in this commentary. Too many other folks are tagging on to Macke's trades when he reveals them way too many hours later. Simple, all the other traders on Minyanville give real time reporting on their trades. So too should Macke!!
Within any presentation of ones own thoughts or opinions there are going to be those who simply do not agree, the point would be in what way does one express that. Personal attacks, simply posting insulting meaningless diatribe that has no bearing on the original content of the posted article.
Their are several "Professors" that I usually disagree with that I would entertain having an adult beverage and exchanging in a spirited discussion - thoughts and ideas, simply posting disparaging remarks is not my mantra.
Mr. Bean, as a closing thought......I see "assumption" as;
Supposing something or to accept that something is true without checking or confirming it.
That is something I simply do not do day to day, rather I "Infer" which I view as;
To come to a conclusion or form an opinion about something on the basis of evidence or reasoning , I do that daily. I make no excuses for myself or my actions, nor do I accept them from others, while there are exceptions for everything that is a very, very narrow window for me.
Your interjections and opinions have value, or at least they do to you, and I respect that.
This post was not intended as an attempt to defend Jeff Macke , I view him as an intuitive advisor with no agenda, no malice, I appreciate that. He has proven (at least to me) that he is more than capable of taking care of himself, and the day to day markets........Respect from me is hard to earn...He amongst others here have it.
Minyan Dave
Speaking for the third largest gaming mecca in NA, and I did hit each and every casino there in the last two weeks, and have been going once a month or so since New Years, I can definitly say foot traffic went way up in early April around mothers day, petered off around Memorial Day, tailed way off until July 4th when it went gangbusters, then dropped down again. Foot traffic mind you, not gambling. Gamblers were few and far between and drunk college kids dont toke the till for the dealers.
No matter where I ate, or where I went, no one was spending money. Foot traffic does not mean revenue.
Back home this weekend, I actually went to Wal Mart on a Saturday at noon, something that is akin to fighting bouncers at a strip club. And I checked right out without waiting in line for a checker to open up, even more shocking because the do it yourself lanes were only taking cash.
Folks, this is deep pooh for retailers. I mean buy your puts now, short the friggin market, we are going down like a French plane speaking Portueguese. It's FUGLY.

















