Random Thoughts: Managing a Minxy Monday
By Todd Harrison Jan 28, 2008 12:30 pm
By the time you get to our desired destination, the journey will have already ended.
- Check a borrow on Hershey?
- Assuming that the FOMC snips 50 bips on Wednesday-which they must, in my view, to avoid a selling stampede-they will have used half of the bullets in their rate cut gun (or slightly more, if the last one will be pointed inward).
- We spoke about the potential for further liftage to resistance levels in the S&P. Where be that? S&P 1370 and 1405, for starters. There's no guarantee we get there, natch, but we always wanna see both sides. S&P 1275 is support the udder way.
- In January 2001, following the first rate cut, the S&P declined 40%. Thus far, following the first rate cut on September 18th, the S&P has declined 12%. Just a little perspective for a minxy Monday.
- Am I bullish or bearish right here, right now? I'm adaptive, with a conscious nod that we could see further bounce (within the context of lower highs) and understanding that the "easy" bungee trade already occurred.
- So wait,
Shanghai was down 7% last night while Heng Seng took a 4% backhand? Decoupling? Nosiree Bob, not even in the realm of volatility, which is intuitive given the globally interwoven derivative machination.
- Things I've learned? There have been many and, if I'm lucky, more lessons await. By the time you get to our desired destination, the journey will have already ended.
- Professor Bennet has been all over the Bubble comparison charts and for good reason. We've seen this movie before, be it dot.com, real estate, and now, debt. In fact, I would love to see him toss that latter matter (as a percentage of GDP?) into the mix.
- I was sniffing around Blackstone (BX) for a trade last Wednesday. I didn't pull the trigger but put a token position on this morning as a placeholder as I do a bit of work.
- To Bowl or not to Bowl, that is the question.
- Pepe Depew has offered fantastic views on social moods and risk appetites. The mainstream press has started to pick up on the theme and it'll be something we'll together monitor in our time ahead.
- Anyone have change of a Qatar? Credit Suisse does, as reports swirl that a Qatar-backed fund (the country, not the football position) will invest $3 billion in one of
Europe's largest banks.
- Alan Greenspan believes there is little "hard evidence" of an American recession but a better than even chance of a severe downturn. In other news, he also disagrees that he is to blame for this mess.
- Hey, it's not like he created the first bubble on the heels of the Asian contagion, didn't let the economy take its medicine once dot.com imploded, shifted speculation to real estate while encouraging adjustable rate-mortgages before building the biggest debt bubble in the history of mankind and tossing the ball to an eager Ben Bernanke. I mean, that woulda been really uncool of him.
- The potential for forced selling and liquidation remains. Hedge funds are on track for their worst month is the Russian default of 1998, according to the FT, and a "raft of European funds have introduced emergency measures to protect their businesses from collapsing, including 10 funds that have halted redemptions" as reported by The Sunday Times.
- Citigroup upgraded General Mills (GIS) and Kellogg Co. (K) this morning while UBS upped Merck (MRK). This fits with my "huggies and druggies" (consumer and pharma) themes for 2008, which has been thus far wrong (early) but has eleven months with which to redeem itself.
- Aw Jeez, here we go again! Mercury Retrograde starts today and there's no way to put lipstick on that pig. Perhaps I shouldn't go to Phoenix, which is actually the direction I'm leaning towards. Too much traveling makes for a most tired Toddo.
- "Today I am 59, tomorrow I'll be 60. Yesterday I was 22. Don't wake up at 60 and wish you had today to do all over again." Muhammad Ali
- The most bullish thing on my screen today? 2:1 positive breadth.
- The most bearish thing on my screen today? The master beta action, from Google (GOOG) to Baidu (BIDU) (chatter of a secondary) to Amazon (AMZN). And volume, which is Marcel Marceau.
- Risk definition is a good thing. Along those lines BX $17.25 is a level to watch (double bottom) for those that dabble in such things.
- Minyanland is where Webkinz meets Wall Street and it's gonna teach an entire generation the virtues of earning, spending, saving and giving. Take me at my word, this is gonna spawn and affect alotta positive change through financial understanding.
- As always, I hope this finds you swell. Pork chops and apple sauce. Swell.
Position in BX
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