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Daily Commodity Spot: Is This a Bottom for the Euro?


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro extended down to come within its closest point of a potential bottom yet. It's unlikely to happen Monday, for reasons described below, but a sharp rally is coming soon - whether or not only temporary.

1. Dollar Basket
March Contract DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)
Has finally probed fresh highs Friday, to within a dime of the 81.80-82.20 target. Now the rally's momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 81.15 as support. Closing under 80.85 would signal momentum reversing down.

2. Eurodollar
March Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
1.2650 was attacked to its closest level yet, Friday morning. The afternoon ranged narrowly just off session lows, which is not accumulative. Anyway, currencies tend to duplicate Friday's action on Monday morning, making fresh lows likely. The trend remains down near-term so long as 1.2740-1.2750 holds as resistance.

3. Gold
February Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
Still probing 1620.00 resistance, while the dollar probes fresh highs and while silver picks at the lower end of its recent range. It's not decoupling, but is being extended and is an accident waiting to happen. Closing back under 1610.50 should reveal cracks in the rally.

4. Silver
March Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
Yet another session of only ranging sideways, and mostly at the range's lower-end. Trading mostly at the range's lower-end, without trending down, suggests that a fresh high is possible. A fresh high in tandem with another gold surge could mark the simultaneous peak of their corrective bounce legs.

5. 30-Year Treasury
March Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
Thursday's insane volatility apparently sapped too much energy to maintain a break under the range on Friday's Employment Situation report. Its reaction down to fresh lows at 141-10 was recovered back up to the 143-00 bounce limit that had held two separate tests one day earlier. Closing back under 142-12 would trigger a new downleg.

6. Crude Oil
March Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
Having waited several days before finally backing off from the 103.00 target met Tuesday, sellers were unconvincing. Friday's early lower low quickly bottomed, too. At least a probe above 103.00 remains likely, if not also a new upleg targeting 111.00.

7. Natural Gas
March Contract NG, ETF: (UNG)
Friday's week-ending recovery to 3.09 stopped patiently short of filling the gap back to Wednesday's 3.12 close. Leaving its attraction outstanding over the weekend can help to resume the rally into the new week. But there is no room or time for hesitation if a rally is actually forming. So, almost any immediate strength Monday would be credible for extending sharply higher.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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