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Random Thoughts: Will Lower Commodities Help Stocks?


Markets look for a Turnaround Tuesday gain.

  • Man, is it hot enough for ya? Nelly ain't got nothing on New York City.

  • If you liked the long gold/short oil pairs trade on Friday, you should absolutely love it today.

  • The most interesting action on my screen out of this morning's gate? The giggling green financials, which are trying to step up and stand out. As go the piggies...

  • Given this chart, which shows the carrot of the banks to the horse of the market, they better catch a bid or Lucy is gonna have a whole lotta splainin' to do.

  • The hardest, most counter-intuitive trade in the marketplace? How bout long financials, short energy? I slapped that trade on this morning with tight stops and an open mind. It is, after all, Turnaround Tuesday.

  • From there? My mandate this afternoon is to swap out of that long financial exposure, keep some short crude and rotate some coin into gold stocks--like Gold Fields Ltd (GFI)--to play the ratio regression.
  • I'm uber-conscious of the potential for a downside disconnect this summer. That remains on the back burner in my crowded keppe at all times. Talk about a fire hazard!

  • Peas are the most under-appreciated veggie, sweet potatoes are the most under-appreciated starch and Thurman Munson is the most under-appreciated catcher of all-time.

  • Levels I'm keep an eye on through the lens of "past support is future resistance? CME (CME) $400 and Continental ( CAL) $16, if and when.

  • NYSE internals started the session with four red for each ahead and since "improved" to 2:1 negative. Keep an eye on this, along with S&P 1350, which is a loud level in trading circles.

  • Ben Bernanke said that the risk of a "substantial downturn" in the economy has receded in the last month? Seriously? Duuude, people on ludes should not run the economy!

  • While I strenuously object to the notion that Big Ben can raise rates, perception is reality in the marketplace.

  • "Lehman (LEH) sold 145,000,000 shares at 28 yesterday, likely to favored hedge fund clients that could flip them. Guess what? Now LEH is under 28. This is a sign of extreme weakness in my view and enforces my belief that the company has no handle on its business and will be forced into the hands of a larger institution. Keep in mind, I have no position here, folks, nor have I post-Bear." Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.


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Position in LEH, GFI

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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