Five Things You Need to Know: Mr. T Gold Indicator Gives Sell Signal

By Kevin Depew Jul 29, 2008 11:05 am
Recent news events are signaling an important sell signal for gold.
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Kevin Depew's Five Things You Need to Know to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street:

The pieces are falling into place. The weight of the evidence taking hold. And like free cocktails at a circus barker's convention, the damage is beginning to ad up.

First it was the announcement that director John Singleton (Boyz n the Hood) has signed on to bring The A Team to the big screen, with a rumored cameo by Mr. T. Next came the announcement of a Mr. T graphic novel scheduled to be released by a British publisher (Mohawk Media) this summer.

Now, Mr. T is back in the news thanks to a controversial Snickers ad that was recently pulled in Britain over complaints it was homophobic, according to the London Telegraph. The ad never aired in the U.S. (though you can see it here thanks to YouTube), but the fact it aired in Britain is rather appropriate considering London is the largest market for global Over-the Counter gold trading.

The bottom line, this news event marks a major sell signal for the Mr. T Gold Indicator, and suggests an important top may be forming.

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

1. What is the Mr. T Gold Indicator?

The Mr. T Gold Indicator is a proprietary technical indicator created by Minyanville to identify and anticipate prospective exhaustion points in the price data for gold. Some technical indicators rely on formulas applied to the price data of a security, but these types of indicators can be very subjective, requiring an analyst to view the signals that are generated within the context of still more indicators! 

The Mr. T Gold indicator, on the other hand, is completely objective and easy to use. All you have to do is look at Mr. T. What could be easier than that?

2. How Does the Mr. T Gold Indicator Work? 

Good question. The Mr. T Gold Indicator is based on the five squares series of price points using .9444 for downside trend factors and .05556 for upside trend factors, multiplying either .9444 or .5556 by the close of the high (or low) that is referenced by the first series of price objective within the oscillating trend channels. 

Hahaha!  Just kidding (although it would be cool if that really was the Mr. T Gold Indicator formula). The truth, however, is the Mr. T Gold Indicator is simply based on the appearance and popularity of Mr. T.  

Minyanville has discovered that over the years Mr. T's appearance in the news and rises and falls in his popularity are subconscious reminders telling us when the yellow metal has reached an important price peak. 

3. Surely, you cannot be serious, do you think I am a fool?

Like Mr. T, we pity the fool. The reason Mr. T pities the fool is because Mr. T knows his gold. In fact, Mr. T developed his gold-wearing ability during his days as a bouncer, confiscating the gold jewelry of those he kicked out of nightclubs as a symbol of his toughness and virility.

Mr. T knows human behavior, and he knows gold. So who are you going to believe? Some pinheaded precious metals analyst at Bigwig, Doofus and Booyah Securities? Or Mr. T? 

Shut up, fool!  You're going to believe a guy whose first name is "Mister", middle name "period", last name "T"!

4. The Mr. T Gold Indicator in Action

(1982 - 1994)

At this point you are probably thinking, "Quit your jibba jabba." Does the Mr. T Gold Indicator work? How good is the Mr. T Gold Indicator?

Rest assured, the Mr. T Gold Indicator has been weighted, smoothed, eyeballed and thoroughly back-tested for generalish accuracy using both the Internet Movie Database (IMDb) and Wikipedia (the free, somewhat accurate encyclopedia that anyone can edit, even that guy who works in your building with the weird comb-over and Charlie's Angels lunch box... and the more we think about it, probably especially him!). Let's take a look at the historical accuracy of the Mr. T Gold Indicator.

Gold 1981 -1994

Gold 1995 - 2005


5. A Fractal-Based Look at the  Mr. T Gold Indicator

As you can see, the Mr. T Gold Indicator is a robust tool for identifying high-probability price exhaustion points in gold, both on the upside and the downside. In the above charts we took a long-term view of gold, using the Mr. T Gold Indicator to identify price exhaustion points on monthly charts. In addition to the yellow metal, the indicator is also useful in identifying similar exhaustion points in the metals stocks themselves, such as Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), AngloGold Ashanti (AU) and Gold Fields (GFI), all of which are flashing similar sell signals.

But what about weekly, daily, even hourly and minute-by-minute charts? Don't give me no back talk, sucka! Naturally, it stands to reason that if the Mr. T Gold Indicator is indeed a robust price exhaustion tool then it should apply to smaller time frames of gold price data.  That is, because the gold market is a self-organizing complex system with self-similarity on different time scales, the Mr. T Gold Indicator should be just as useful in these self-similar and subdivided minute time frames as it is on a larger scale. But this must be tested! 

As you can see from the chart below, on February 22, 1983, gold opened very strong as the opening title sequence to the A-Team television show rolled.  However, in this episode, "Bad Day at Black Rock", (see A on the chart below) Mr. T's character, Sgt. Bosco "B.A." Baracus, was seriously wounded by gunfire. 

About 15 minutes after the first commercial break (see B on the chart below) gold began a brief rebound as The A-Team found medical attention for B.A. from a small-town doctor.

However, in the next few minutes, it became clear that the small-town doctor suspected B.A. may be part of a biker gang returning to rescue their jailed leader. Gold collapsed intra-day (see C on the chart below) as the doctor warned the local sheriff of his suspicions. It appeared B.A. was doomed. 

About 22 minutes later (See D on the chart below)  Hannibal was able to convince the sheriff that B.A. was one of the good guys.  Gold rebounded by the end of the episode as B.A. recovered and the A-Team helped the sheriff protect the town.

Gold, five-minute intra-day chart, February 22, 1983



For more, watch as Hoofy and Boo report on the Mr. T Gold Indicator and have an unexpected guest!



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No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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(13)
2008-07-29 10:34:10
flipflop
kevin, 3 weeks ago you posted mr t indicator but did not give any explanation later on, now that you consider that oil and commodities are declining and gold following suit you take the guts and posted again. Given the actual circumstances i do not see a top on gold , may be short term, things are getting worse and bureocrats are making the same mistakes
2008-07-29 11:40:20
What's the point, sucka?
Kevin Depew only gets better with each day's posting. In those rare days when Kevin doesn't post his "5 things" I slip into a deep depression and can only be revived by re-reading old articles.

Laugh out loud hillarious stuff. As a child of the 60's, I have to ask how old Kevin is. This terrific insight can only have been gained from living during the 60's and 70's, not from reading about it.

Bind up all his postings and sell then on
Amazon.com. I'll buy 10 copies and give them to friends.

Michael "I have a man crush on Kevin" Taillon
2008-07-29 11:50:06
sell signals triggered by obvious manipulation
The 'housing' bill increases our national debt limit by $8 trillion and somehow gold is a "sell"? Puh-lease.

US money supply is increasing at a 10-15% annualized rate and somehow gold is a "sell"? Surely you jest.

oil remains 100% more expensive than it was just 12 months ago and somehow gold is a "sell"? Perhaps there is another inflation hedge that has preserved wealth for 5000 years?

OK, OK... so the powers-that-be called in a favor, so you ran an anti-gold piece at their behest, and then you buried the article ASAP. I get it. How does that work? Does a pigeon deliver such orders to your widow sill? Just curious about how the anti-gold cartel communicates with us mortals...
2008-07-29 13:19:29
The bottom?
I think the last sell signal he gave on gold was around a year ago this time. When gold was trading around $650............
2008-07-29 13:48:56
Hey, guys...
... The Mr. T Gold Indicator is a joke, folks! Read the past articles about it, watch the Hoofy & Boo episode. It may be scarily accurate at times (maybe not this time), but it's still a joke. You guys take life too seriously. ;)
2008-07-29 16:32:19
Professor Depew's lesson on Indicators and knowledge
Thanks for the salutary reminder of our weakness and self absorbtion and of the deadly effect of believing your own BS. Nothing people want more than to believe that they know what they are doing and nothing more clouds their understanding.

Certainly true for me, anyway!!!!!
2008-07-29 17:33:12
stop your jibba jabba
hilarious! i laughed my head off!
2008-07-30 09:29:38
flipflop
Agreed
2008-07-30 11:18:14
Mr. T signal versus Hate mail signal
I just read Professor Lewis' note on the Hate mail signal, which is a buy signal. Yet the Mr. T signal said sell just a day or two previously. How about a comparison, or at least an overlay of the relevant charts?

I would guess that Mr. T has been around for a lot longer than Prof. Lewis has been getting hate mail, but perhaps there's a few years of overlapping data? Or should we view the hate mail signal as a shorter term indicator?

I'm not a Gold Bug, but I couldn't help but notice the disparity in the signals as put forth by two such prominent profs.

Cheers, Minyan Tuck
2008-07-30 11:40:56
Mr T says sell sell sell
Boy Kevin, You were right on. Gold is down $20 at the bell this morning. Thanks for your tip. Your Mr. T index is the first market indicator I actually understand. I tried to learn the Elliot Wave and had a brain spasm - my Bolinger Bands gave me a rupture - and the fundamentals tried to get me to go to church. Mr. T is Da Man - ya'll listen.
2008-07-31 00:18:59
A joke is only funny the first time you hear it...
But they'll keep posting the Mr. T Gold Indicator article every few months anyway (nearly verbatim each time). Well...

The last two times this silly article was posted, gold went from $690 to $850 and from $800 to $1033, an average gain of 25%!
I pity da Indicata!

As for the miners, they've bottomed every July/August for the past seven years and then moved up an AVERAGE of 40% each time!! Guess what happened today?

But what do I know, I wasn't the co-star of Rocky III...
2008-07-31 01:12:23
Mr. T Gold Indicator
Kevin could not have timed it better, Mr. T was not wearing any of his confiscated gold necklaces during the interview. Talk about a credibility booster! Snopes hasn't got anything like it. Minyans Rock!
2008-08-05 15:04:53
Mr. T is Golden
I love this clip! Gold must be going through the roof right now with Mr. T and all his business. I just got him as a voice on my GPS from Navtones.com. Its the real Mr. T and it is a lot of fun. They have some funny Mr. T videos on their youtube.com/navtonesgps page too.

Love it!
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