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Gold, Silver at Risk of Entering Runaway Rally

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It's doubtful that gold is going to suffer any meaningful correction as long as the dollar is in free fall, so we could see the gold cycle stretch as well.

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For many months now I've been warning we were going to have a dollar crisis and that dollar crisis would drive the final leg up in gold's ongoing two year C-wave advance. We are now on the verge of the panic selling stage of this three-year cycle.

On Monday the dollar briefly rallied on the S&P downgrade of US debt (who knew?). That had the potential to mark the bottom of the current dollar cycle. But by this morning the dollar has given back all of those gains and then some.

The dollar's daily cycle often turns on the employment report at the beginning of each month. The previous cycle bottomed one day after the March report and the current daily cycle topped on the April report.



If this pattern continues then we can probably expect the current dollar cycle to stretch for another 2.5 weeks into the May report (give or take a day or two either way).

I seriously doubt gold is going to suffer any meaningful correction as long as the dollar is in free fall, so I expect we are going to see the gold cycle stretch also.

If the dollar does continue lower into the May employment report before putting in the cycle low it would then be set up for a more normal duration decline into the final three-year cycle low due on or around the June report.



However with the dollar losing its chance to rally here, gold -- and especially silver -- are now at risk of entering a runaway rally.

Editor's Note: Toby Connor is the author of Gold Scents, a financial blog with a special emphasis on the gold secular bull market.
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