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Daily Commodity Spot: The Slide in Natural Gas Persists


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Does anyone NOT know about the natural gas price slide? And, yet, the slide persists. At least 10 consecutive downdays have been interrupted by only two non-consecutive, unproductive updays, ready to trigger my (up)crash(down) setup.

1. Dollar Basket
March Contract DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)
Thursday's fresh low testing 80.35 must hold as the pullback's low to avoid the potential of extending down to 79.30 and potentially 78.05.

2. Eurodollar
March Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
Gapping up and extending higher Thursday confirmed Wednesday's breakout above last week's high, and the signal triggered lower at 1.2750. The rally is targeting a test of the 1.3050 area, with potential to 1.3333.

3. Gold
February Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
Thursday's inside day under 1665.00 hid the overnight surge to 1670.60. Its retest intraday up to 1684.00 remains likely so long as pullbacks continue to hold 1647.00 support.

4. Silver
March Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
Fresh highs overnight persisted into Thursday's open, before pulling back intraday. The open's gap above prior highs should attract a higher prices in order to resume the rally.

5. 30-Year Treasury
March Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
The consequence to Wednesday morning's rejection of 145-10 resistance has been developing quickly. Its intraday drop to 144-05 was followed Thursday by another plunge to 142-12. Closing Friday under 142-05 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 140-02. Bounces meanwhile should hold 143 04 to maintain the decline's momentum.

6. Crude Oil
March Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
Like the two prior sessions' intraday rally efforts, Thursday's gap up through 102.00 was retraced back into the prior range. Now closing under 99.75 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 99.40. Until then, closing above 103.00 would still launch a new rally leg targeting 111.00.

7. Natural Gas
March Contract NG, ETF: (UNG)
Despite already having trended down well under prior lows for 1-1/2 weeks, Thursday's session fell sharply to another new low. The (up)crash(down) setup is stretching the rubber band tightly, either to snap back up sharply, or else to break sharply lower on capitulation.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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