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Two Ways To Play: 'Tis the Season... For Gold


Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.

Gold Rush

Bloomberg reports analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe gold may gain 10% by the end of the year due to demand for jewelry during the Indian wedding and festival season. Since 2002, the season has boosted prices every year with September being the strongest buying month, the analysts wrote in a report. Further, for the past decade gold has increased by an average of 10.1% from September through December.

For more on gold, see Professor Lance Lewis' column Gold: Misconceptions vs. Reality.

From the Bull Pen: Gold bulls can consider Goldcorp (GG) for an upside play. The stock seems to be sitting on the $30 support level. Sell stops can be set below that mark.

From the Bear Cave: Bears see the broken long term uptrend and will view a rally to $88 in the Gold ETF (GLD) as simply a 50% retracement from the July high. Downside entry if and when.

Guess Who!

Guess (GES) surprised the Street yesterday after the bell. The Los Angeles-based clothing retailer said fiscal second-quarter earnings came in at $0.57 per share, 8 cents better than consensus expectations. Revenues rose 32.7% year-over-year to $515 million vs. $460 million consensus.

The company also raised its guidance for the full year and increased its dividend from 8 cents to 10 cents. Stay tuned for more on retail with Professor Jeff Macke's monthly Retail Roundup.

From the Bull Pen: Guess' results may be appealing to some bulls and the numbers have analysts at Bean Murray reiterating their buy recommendations. Sell stops in the near term can be set below $37 on an upside try.

From the Bear Cave: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) might be a better downside option. The stock seems to be following its 50 DMA lower but a rally to $60 might provide bears with a better entry.

For more ideas in real time throughout the trading day, check out Minyanville's Buzz & Banter.

Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -0.95%, Nikkei -1.04%, Sensex -1.00%, Taiwan -2.62% and Shanghai +0.03%.

Glancing towards Europe, we see the CAC -0.42%, DAX -0.96%, FTSE +0.57%

As of 8:30 AM EST, S&P futures are lower 6.4 points to 1268, and Nasdaq futures are lower 10 points to 1824.

A Look At Commodities

Commodities are higher. Crude oil is up +0.44 to 109.79. Gold is up +6 to 810.30. Silver is up +0.180 to 13.040 and copper is higher +1.10 to 336.50.

The dollar index is lower -0.003 to 78.071.

On the Radar


ADP Employment Change: -33 k vs. -30 k cons.

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims: 420 k prior.
8:30 Continuing Claims: 3423 k prior.
8:30 Nonfarm Productivity: 3.5% cons.
8:30 Unit Labor Costs: 0.1% cons.
10:00 ISM Non-mfg composite: 49.5 cons.

Good luck today!
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