Answers I Really Wanna Know: What Will 2009 Bring?
Will the New Year bring equity, credit, currencies and commodities back into a state of equilibrium?
It's the holiday stretch following a freaky weird year as folks tie a bow around 2008. As we, in Minyanville, pride ourselves in offering the financial news you need to know before you know you need it, the following thoughts are top of mind as we begin to ready our fresh set of forward-looking expectations.
- Is an overhaul of financial services compensation-from mutual funds to hedge funds to broker dealers-too "easy" to include as a top-tier theme?
- What about an organic two-for-one split in the number of hedge funds in existence?
- Will 2009 see the seismic readjustment to bring equity, credit, currencies and commodities back into a state of equilibrium?
- The issuance of Federal Reserve Bonds?
- Would you buy those?
- While the other side of our Wishbone World is viable-if not probable, at a point-shouldn't we always "see" both sides of every trade?
- Given the current currency concerns-and the natural, intuitive inclination of an attendant pop in commodities-shouldn't that perspective incorporate, at some level, the multi-year downtrend line in gold?
- Did you ever have a moment of absolute clarity?
- It feels a lot like... gratitude, eh?
- But why is it so fleeting? Why, in my 39.5 years on earth, can I count three "specks" of consciousness?
- Can you please join me in saying out loud, "White light Ike!"?
- Democracy deflation?
- If we wrote that the FXY (Japanese Yen) was the "single best idea" in October-and it's up 20% since then-why, pray tell, didn't I stuff some in my sock drawer?
Perhaps because the Trading Gods have a vicious sense of humor?
- Turnaround Tuesday anyone?
- Will societal acrimony shift to social unrest and geopolitical conflict?
- During a time when U.S. defense spending is perhaps the most vulnerable budget cut?
- Is there ANY geopolitical risk premium left in crude?
- Or is "financial protectionism" the risk, as Minyan Peter highlighted on yesterday's Buzz & Banter:
"Beginning with Greece and Ireland we have seen nation after nation adopt measures to competitively advantage their own domestic banks in an effort to attract capital and liquidity. And with each passing day, these beggar-thy-neighbor actions are ratcheting up as third party capital becomes more and more scarce. Ultimately I envision some nations resorting to foreign exchange controls to trap whatever liquidity they can before it flees elsewhere."
- Will 2009 be akin to 2002, a "give up" phase that will lead to better opportunities in 2010 or 2011?
- Holy cow, 2011?
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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