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Random Thoughts: When Will India, China Warm Up?


Will you be prepared for the eventual outside-in recovery?


Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also Limit Down! and Defining Risk on a Defining Day.

Answers I Really Wanna Know... - 12:39 pm

  • As I've been patiently waiting for Gold $700 to begin risk initiation, did discipline dictate adding a small snivlet with hopes of adding at lower levels? (I did so with gold up $10-ish, so you know, and typing as fast as I can!)

  • And you see GLD $73 (from where we broke) as near-term resistance?

  • With the right entry points, is there a better stylistic approach than trailing stops in this environment?

  • How many organizations are in the enviable position to adding capacity into this downturn?

  • Won't that be the hallmark of the winners of the new world on the other side of socioeconomic malaise?

  • Will ye faithful remember that the other side of love isn't hate--it's apathy?

  • But who would ever be apathetic with regards to their children's well being?

  • Did Jim Croce ever get the snaps he deserved?

  • The Autumn Wind is a Pirate?

  • But Minyans knew that already, right?

  • While I promised some exciting news on the Minyan front this week, will ye faithful please lemme unleash that beast next week for maximum splashage? (Thanks!)

  • If you're staring at every tick, don't you think you're a bit outsized in your exposure?

Up Date, Down Date! - 1:09 pm

As a follow up to this morning's additions of ultra-long vehicles into the opening abyss, please know that those trailing stops in the QLD and SSO were triggered and profitable trades were booked.

That, of course, doesn't mean we can't rally but discipline over conviction as we continue to find our way. And no, that doesn't preclude me from buying them back if I so choose.

In fact, in the interest of full disclosure, I actually nibbled back some on some SSO since I scribed the first paragraph with similar risk parameters in place

I continue to have some upside exposure in the DXO (again, a very thin crude play, but I'm trying it), the FXI (trailing stop there as well) and a snivlet of GLD (a counter-trend play given the deflation (higher dollar) and I've set my stop at the entry price with intentions of trailing it higher should it begin to shimmer.

Full disclosure on this Freaky Friday Potpourri with one message in mind: risk management over reward chasing as we together find our way.

As always, I hope this finds you well.

How do I tell them that due to the unfreezing process I have no inner monolouge? - 3:11 pm

The following vibes are the very first things to pass behind my flickering eyes. Hey, it's freaky, it's Friday and we've got a little less than an hour before tuning it out and turning it up!

  • Where you stand is a function of where you sit. While real risk remains below S&P 840 (perhaps to S&P 777 or S&P 600), my sense is that Minyans with an extended time horizon can find some noice babies in the bathwater at these levels.

  • As it stands, we have put in the 2008 trading lows but make no mistake, there's another side of that ride.

  • Partial positions make sense for those so inclined, leaving room to buy lower and having something for a Snapper, should your risk profile and time horizon allow for that latitude.

  • The final hour? Coss a Toin, but remember that back-to-back Snappers are considered cute.

  • I've been stopped more times than during my high school prom today but you know what? It's been a profitable path through the lens of risk management. Discipline over conviction.

  • You know what stock trades dry relative to its peers for the first time in eons? BHP Billiton (BHP).

  • Minyanville's Holiday Festivus is coming up quick on Thursday, December 4th. Come one, come all and come to play--this is gonna be some humdinga!

  • In addition to the FXI (China), keep IFN (India) on ye radar. It's not a trade, per se, but with India down 71% since December (when people were falling all over themselves to buy it), it's worth keeping on our radar through the lens of an eventual--and I stress eventual--outside-in recovery.

  • Jeezums, look at these moves--lemme get this out in a (cough) timely fashion as we jump and juggle into the close. Fare ye well, Minyans, and remember--be yourself, no matter what happens, they can't take that away from you.


Did you know the doors to Festivus 2008 are officially open? Have you yet locked your spot for the critter trot as last year's soiree sold out? (This is our annual event to commingle our professors, partners and Minyans while chowing down and listening to live music. The very best part? It's for the kids in the good name of my grandfather.)

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Positions in DXO, GLD, FXI, SSO, IFN
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