Fed Fumble: Lots of Cash, No One to Spend It

By Andrew Jeffery Mar 20, 2009 1:05 pm
Velocity of money has slowed to a crawl.
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With the Federal Reserve seemingly hell-bent on inflating its way out of this recession -- pumping an additional $1 trillion into the market -- the specter of hyperinflation necessarily looms large.

But not so fast: While the Fed’s announcement might seem alarming, Chairman Ben Bernanke is fighting a forest fire with a water weenie.

Back in reality, the ongoing debt destruction and shift back toward savings is having a far greater effect on the American economy than a paltry few hundred billion dollars of “liquidity.” The Wall Street Journal reports that, although M2 money supply has increased 10% in the past year, the cash isn’t really going anywhere.

The more significant number -- what’s known as the “velocity of money” -- fell to its lowest level since 1991. The velocity of money simply means how quickly money is spent: It measures the amount of gross domestic product, or GDP, generated for each dollar of cash sloshing around the system.

When confidence is high, credit is loose, and spenders are running rampant, money flows quickly through the system, boosting GDP. When social mood turns, however, and savers hoard their cash, the velocity of money slows down - and GDP grinds to a halt.

So even though the Fed is injecting more money into the system, consumers are socking it all away in savings accounts or paying down debt. Banks, for their part, aren't doing anything with the money, either. Big banks like Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM), still reeling from mounting losses on bad debt, are hording what little cash they have.

Until the bad debt can be destroyed -- and until savers can receive attractive returns -- higher prices will remain merely hypothetical. 

Inflation, like other economic entities, is controlled by supply and demand. The velocity of money is one way to represent the demand for “stuff” - when it goes up, prices tend to follow.

Fears about inflation are based partly on the assumption that, as consumer demand picks back up, empty store shelves and warehouses will create shortages that could lead to rampaging inflation.

Maybe - all in due time.

As the Journal points out, consumers jumping back into the spending game en masse depends on people not only having actual money to spend, but on having the desire to spend it. And while consumption certainly won't stop altogether, this slowdown may be something more than a run-of-the-mill recession: It may be a structural shift away from the consumerist leanings of the past 30 years.

Maybe, instead of stockpiling oil and gold, we should focus on stockpiling cash.
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(11)
2009-03-20 13:13:42
Lots of cash
I think you have the correct approach but I keep having this nagging feeling that there is going to be a large black market for things legal and illegal that crops up pretty soon and gold and silver are gonna be a part of it. To what degree, at this point in time, I think is unknowable.
2009-03-20 13:32:07
Too much stuff
There is also to much stuff, manufacturing capacity, hotel rooms, malls etc, for prices to rise any time soon. Except in things subsidized by the gov, like education and health care.
2009-03-20 13:32:50
deflation and the precious metals
so there's no doubt, i love both gold and silver, and have a core belief both (or at least gold) will have to be merged into our fiat system "at some point" -

but, i also believe the current structural deflation will cause the price of both to come down

when and how much, can't say

but i think they will

meanwhile, cash and a silver dollar seem like a good thing to have ;-)
2009-03-20 13:54:49
This "saving" thing.
While I agree that the peasantry is "saving", I don't see this a "mood change" as is talked about on this site. It's more out of confusion. The peasants I deal with are still WAY to (typically American) optimistic about the future. They keep sayin' that "all this economic stuff" is really caused by the "negative media talkin'" and "Ronald Reagan didn't raise taxes", and if the government would "just cut taxes" the economy would start moving again, but this Obama is "just givin' our tax money to bail-out the losers". And, ya know, "all this negative talk doesn't do anybody any good. People talk about `mmmrca being id debt, well look at all the money WE send over there, we should start keeping our own money HERE!".

Nope, it'll take a LONG time to wring out the `mmmrcan self-delusion. The WORKING peasants I know are NOT saving for their retirement. And, I'll tell ya what: when "saving for my retirement" because part of the `mmmrca vernacular again, THAT'S when things will have REALLY changed.
2009-03-20 13:59:55
human spirit
The one thing a government can't do is make people substitute their own interest to the collective interest. They can fool them for a while, but you can't fool all the people all the time.

Let us see if it is in someone's best interest to start a new business at this juncture.

We all must stand up and say, 'no'. I no longer believe you. I will believe in myself.

When all the liar are chased out of town, then it will be time to go back. Until then, I'm on strike.

"With 30 years upon my head, to have you call me child" - Dead
2009-03-20 14:10:56
More fun to come
There is another phenomena that will occur if things continue to play out. As those unemployed and underemployed transition from spenders to savers some of their new found time transitions to self productive purposes. It may be as little as mowing their own lawn rather than paying the neighbors kid or planting an apple tree rather than buying fruit at the local market or repairing ones own car.
When that occurs the money that would otherwise be economically recognized as circulating disappears. This is when the absence of money in circulation becomes apparent at the street level.
A little self reliance can be great for ones self confidence but it is hell on tax receipts based on income and sales as multiplier effects vanish as well.
2009-03-20 18:54:24
Yup
Brandon and Robert - I agree.

Andrew - Yup, you are correct. The average American is not stupid; they can tell which way the wind is blowing.

I'm so tired of hearing about "talent" on Wall Street; they have an excess of ego and arrogance and a lack of common sense and humility; a fatal combination regardless of your intellect or education. The average college graduate could run AIG accounts and Wall Street firms, really now. What they would lack is extending their pinky when raising the martini glass, looking down their nose at the working class, and knowing how to mingle with the Jet Set (societal vampires).

I'm also sick and tired of hearing how lower mortgage rates are going to make Americans go out and refinance their mortgage and then they will have all sorts of money to spend to revive the economy. DOH!

I refinanced to a 15 year to pay down the debt. Agreed, there are those who will make the same mistake twice or three times and refi a 30 year or do an ARM for spending cash, but if that is what the majority of responsible homeowners do than our current crisis is nothing compared to that bubble bursting in the near future as inflation pushes rates up and up.

Yikes!

2009-03-22 13:17:58
debt deflation
The level of private debt in the US is presently 300% of GDP. This is a historical peak. Australian economist Steve Keen has created an endogenous (bank credit created) money model which shows that this level of debt will cause price and wages to fall for the next 10-15 years, even if considerable fiat is injected into the households. (Fiat hoarded by the banks has the same economic effect as fiat buried in the back yard)

While the depression will be not fun, if the American people can politically seize back the money power and restore it to Congress, or, better yet, to state and local governments, it will be worth the pain. The American people need to wake up and realize they are being ruled by criminals.
2009-03-22 16:21:37
debt deflation
Few have put it so bluntly. Wall Street and Washington are apparently...criminal enterprises similar in structure to the Mafia.
2009-03-23 12:27:01
Too much stuff
and utility prices as they are monopolies which keep on making their 12%

or more when prices go down
2009-11-23 20:07:53
fitch
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