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business newsGlobal Recession: Right Here, Right Now
By
Mike Mish Shedlock
Sep 02, 2011 2:15 pm
Why are we talking about avoiding recession when the global economy is clearly in one and fundamentals are horrendous?
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It's time to stop debating whether or not the US or Europe is headed into recession. The facts show the entire global economy is in recession.
Global Recession Supporting Data-Points
Ten Thoughts
1. Prior stimulus in the US is dead, having run its full course.
2. There is no incentive in the US Congress for more stimulus.
3. Austerity measures have yet to hit Italy and France.
4. Austerity measures will continue to bite Spain, Greece, Ireland.
5. Germany's export machine will die without the rest of Europe.
6. QE3 will fail much sooner than QE2 as interest rates already extremely accommodating.
7. Gold may respond well to competitive currency devaluation schemes.
8. The Eurozone is highly likely to breakup, although timing is unknown.
9. Global equities and commodities are priced for perfection.
10. Perfection is not happening.
Talk of avoiding recession when the global economy is clearly in one and fundamentals are horrendous is sheer lunacy. For more, see Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis here.
Global Recession Supporting Data-Points
- Euro zone’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to a two-year low of 49.0 in August, down from a preliminary reading of 49.7. (Business Insider)
- PMI’s contractions seen in Ireland, France, Italy, Spain and Greece. (Business Insider)
- Germany’s manufacturing PMI slowed to its lowest level since September 2009, slumping to 50.9, well below an initial estimate of 52.0. (Business Insider)
- US Manufacturing ISM ex-inventory Growth is in contraction (Mish)
- Japan's PMI fell at three-month low (Financial Times)
- PMI readings in Switzerland and Sweden dropped (Financial Times)
- British manufacturing PMI fells 49, hitting a 26-month low (MarketWatch)
- Germany private consumption fell for first time since Q4 2009; Manufacturing growth slowest in 23 months (Reuters)
- Japan capital spending plummeted 7.8%; In Q2, expectations were for 1% increase (RTT)
- US construction declines 3.5% vs. same period in 2010 (US Census Bureau)
- China exports to US contract, PMI is barely above contraction (Reuters)
- Container traffic at Port of Long Beach drops 3.17%, smack in face of normal Christmas season ramp-up (Bloomberg)
- Canada GDP unexpectedly declines, led by a 2.1% drop in exports (Bloomberg)
- Brazil unexpectedly cuts interest rates .5% to combat recession; 62 of 62 analysts miss call on rate cut (Mish)
- Taiwan's PMI dropped to 45.2 in August, the lowest reading since January 2009 (Reuters)
- German economy grew just 0.1 percent in the second quarter (Reuters)
- Switzerland economy grew at its slowest pace since 2009, as a record strong Swiss franc bites into exports. (Reuters)
- Retail giant in Australia warns of massive price deflation and falling sales, "Hardest Christmas in Retailer Lives" coming up (Mish)
- US see zero jobs growth, unemployment rate remains flat at 9.1% (Mish)
Ten Thoughts
1. Prior stimulus in the US is dead, having run its full course.
2. There is no incentive in the US Congress for more stimulus.
3. Austerity measures have yet to hit Italy and France.
4. Austerity measures will continue to bite Spain, Greece, Ireland.
5. Germany's export machine will die without the rest of Europe.
6. QE3 will fail much sooner than QE2 as interest rates already extremely accommodating.
7. Gold may respond well to competitive currency devaluation schemes.
8. The Eurozone is highly likely to breakup, although timing is unknown.
9. Global equities and commodities are priced for perfection.
10. Perfection is not happening.
Talk of avoiding recession when the global economy is clearly in one and fundamentals are horrendous is sheer lunacy. For more, see Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis here.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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