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Five Macro Themes and Three Investment Ideas for 2012


A recent investment outlook roundtable was the catalyst for some big picture thoughts, some current themes, and several new investment ideas for the new year.


A recent investment outlook roundtable was the catalyst for some big picture thoughts, five current themes, and several new investment ideas. Steady as she goes is the meme because, for all the angst in financial markets, changes to the key underpinnings of what is occurring (or not) in the world economy have been limited.

We remain in a global deleveraging process. This is most acute in the developed economies but may spread to the emerging economies via Europe's debt crisis.

Coupled with the deleveraging process is a shortfall in global aggregate demand. Western consumers seek to pay down debts built up in the early years of the 21st century while emerging consumers grow their purchasing power. The demand rebalancing from the US to the rest remains far from complete.

Political dithering in Europe has allowed a liquidity problem in most cases to morph into a solvency question for many banks and some sovereigns. If anyone needs a bullish start to 2012, it is European banks as they seek to raise capital – early day returns (Unicredit) do not bode well with negative implications for the magnitude of Europe's credit crunch.

Central banks in the US, Europe and Asia have employed varying degrees of monetary policy to offset these interrelated problems. What monetary policy there is has been nullified to a large extent by a wrong-headed political embrace of austerity, especially in Europe but also to a lesser degree in the US. Expect a very deep recession in Europe where even Germany feels the pain. The Fed's efforts at QE show the way: banks hoard capital, liquidity stagnates, economies weaken, central bankers become politicized, earnings fall. The ECB is now learning this lesson.

The global framework remains much as it has been for several years: developed economies face sub par growth/recession and deflation risks while emerging economies enjoy better growth with rising inflation, now morphing into stagflation (defined as inflation rates higher than growth rates). Growth drivers in the developed or emerging economies for 2012-2013 are very hard to identify given the deep recession one can expect in Europe, the fiscal drag baked into the US cake and China's political-economic transition. Bottom line – downside risks seem to far outweigh upside opportunities.

Five Themes

Five themes emerge from this worldview: bifurcation; corporates lead; US is the place to be; the search for yield; and the global tide turns. Lets explore each in turn.

Bifurcation: spreads around the globe, across assets and among peoples. 2011 was the year of Occupy Wall Street, but it was the 1% who made the money, a clear example of bifurcation that will influence the globe's socio-political landscape for years to come. Bifurcation between labor and capital stimulates social tension; between political parties ensures gridlock and dependence upon unelected central bankers; between financial assets creates volatility and shrinks liquidity.

Corporates lead: Among the three main actors (individuals, governments and corporates) corporates are in the best shape, certainly among the developed economies and only marginally less so in emerging economies where sovereigns are in good shape. The consumer is strapped in the West and worried about inflation in the East. Governments have taken on the debt of the banks and in many cases are much worse off than 2008. US corporates will have close to $2 trillion in cash over 2012... stock buybacks are likely to be the C suite strategy of the year!

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