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Daily Commodity Spot: Euro Plunge Tuesday Night Predicted Today's Action


A breakdown of the six most active commodity futures from today.

I maintain opinions for various futures markets. Following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front-month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Wednesday's highlight really happened Tuesday night, when the euro plunged. Another of Wednesday's highlight also belongs to Tuesday night, when the steep plunge was retraced back under Tuesday's lows. Uneventful price action Thursday would not be surprising, as the market absorbs such wide ranging.

Dollar Basket March Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) -- Tuesday's outperformance versus the euro made lower lows unlikely, or unlikely to gain traction. It was the latter, as an overnight dive was retraced entirely and then reversed into positive territory Wednesday. The recovery never gained traction, and the balance of the session ranged narrowly back into negative territory. Back under 80.15 would once again target 79.25, but a rally to 80.80 would be signaled above 80.40.

Eurodollar March Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) -- Tuesday night's surge fulfilled the rally's potential to 1.3200 and reacted back down sharply. Tuesday's intraday buyers had not gained traction, so the reversal down was all but required. Any break maintained under 1.3055 would likely extend lower to full outstanding gaps back down to 1.3015 and 1.2975.

Gold February Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) -- 1620.00 resistance held, ultimately, but not until being probed momentarily by an overnight surge up to 1643.70. A close back under 1610.50 is still needed to signal a downleg underway 1596.00 and potentially 1575.50.

Silver March Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday's "ineffectual optimism" was followed Wednesday by "ineffectual pessimism" - gapping down, probing Tuesday's 29.26 prior low and spending the entire session in negative territory. Almost any new weakness Thursday should find little if any support to delay silver extending down to fresh lows targeting 27.90 and 27.05. Otherwise, back above 29.60 would target 31.00.

30-year Treasury March Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) -- Tuesday's steep drop extended lower overnight under 144-02 down to 143-19. Wednesday's gap up quickly tested 144-12 resistance before reversing back down to new lows at 143-04. This level's relevance during last month's rally makes its support significant - and likely to hold. Regardless, fresh lows have room down to 142-12 before starting to consider a bigger downleg already underway.

Crude Oil March Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) -- Overnight probes above 98.00 were retraced initially, making Wednesday vulnerable to reversing down sharply. But 98.00 was recovered again on EIA's report of significant inventory contraction. The intraday high tested 99.40, and closing above it Thursday would confirm 103.00 is in-play.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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