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Daily Commodity Spot: Is Gold Still "Jumping the Shark"?


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Is gold still "jumping the shark"? Currencies extended sharply, with the euro fulfilling the decline's long-awaited minimum objective of probing year-old lows. It's certainly interesting that gold rallied only back to its prior session's highs, while silver ranged sideways.

1. Dollar Basket
March Contract DX, ETF: (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's recovery extended sharply higher overnight to retest last week's 81.25 bounce target. This leg's minimum objective is to probe fresh highs above 81.41, probably to 81.80-82.20, so long as pullbacks hold 80.85 support.

2. Eurodollar
March Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
A steep overnight slide finally fulfilled the decline's long-awaited minimum objective, to probe under last January's 1.2901 low. The 1.2650 objective remains in-play so long as bounces now hold 1.2840-1.2900 as resistance.

3. Gold
Febuary Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
The drop from Wednesday's 1826.80 pre-open high extended down to 1597.70, testing 1598.00 support. Its test launched a recovery to within $1 of 1597.70, but it's just noise in the range. Closing back under 1610.50 would still signal a new downleg underway, confirmed by closing under 1598.00.

4. Silver
March Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
The divergence from gold persisted for a second consecutive day as Tuesday's 29.73 high still have yet to be met. But 28.70 support still holds, so sellers have yet to reject the bounce.

5. 30-Year Treasury
March Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
Trending ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report would be unusual. Even more unusual was Thursday's wide and choppy range. Room for a bounce testing 143-00 was fulfilled before Thursday's open. Despite reacting down to probe under Wednesday's 142-03 low, 143-00 was revisited and it was retraced again down to 142-05. A close beyond either end of the range Friday should extend in that direction, and all unfinished business is below.

6. Crude Oil
March Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
A third consecutive session of testing the 103.00 rally target again failed to close higher. It was rejected back under 102.00. There is no active signal, but a vulnerability to extending higher sharply.

7. Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG, ETF: (UNG)
Wednesday's timid probe above 3.09 was the wrong character for triggering its buy signal. Extending higher after Thursday's EIA report would have been bullish. But Thursday's reaction fell back to 2.98. Meanwhile, Thursday's open left outstanding a gap back to Wednesday's 3.12 close. Closing above 3.09 would be sufficient to trigger momentum reversing up.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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