Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Currencies in the Spotlight for the Futures Market


A breakdown of yesterday's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Monday's Highlight: Currencies earned the spotlight again, but for behavior that played out entirely overnight before Monday's regular open. Sunday night's opens gapped to new trend extremes, which were rejected almost immediately, but probably need to be retested.

1. Dollar Basket
March Contract DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)
The rally's 81.80-81.20 target area was probed a little more thoroughly by Sunday night's gap up. Monday's regular open had retraced it enough to gap down slightly. The balance of the session was spent in negative territory, with the afternoon holding a brief test of the morning low. This "ineffectual pessimism" makes at least one more fresh high likely, but it could form a durable top if reversed to close negative on the day.

March Contract EC, ETF: (FXE)
Sunday night's gap down to new lows was recovered entirely, in time for the regular open to gap up. The balance of the session essentially ranged in positive territory, testing but not exceeding the morning's high. This "excessive optimism" and the gap outstanding back to Sunday night's open make a recovery unlikely yet, or unlikely to extend durably higher. But the sustained reaction up from gapping down, and the 1.2673 overnight low's proximity to the long-awaited 1.2650 target, suggest that sellers may be running out of steam so a bottom can form.

Febuary Contract GC, ETF: (GLD)
Friday's probe above 1620.00 resistance held through Monday, which pushed back down to test 1610.50 support. Absent a bigger rejection of higher highs, or a bigger break under 1610.50 confirmed under 1598.00, the pattern is not very compelling.

Mar Contract SI, ETF: (SLV)
Monday once again narrowed its range, while still testing the lower-end of a multi-session range. Sellers just aren't gaining traction for their effort, which suggests that patient buyers are waiting to produce a spike higher. Perhaps that needs a blip-down to fresh lows that stretches the slingshot back, first. Regardless, I would be more interested in buying weakness than selling strength.

30-Year Treasury
March Contract US, ETF: (TLT)
Friday's wild ride continued Monday. The gap down from having held 143-00 resistance touched 142-15 and reversed up. A probe above Friday's highs touched 143-24. The recovery proved temporary, as the close dipped back under 143-00. Back under 142-12 would start to suggest the downleg had resumed, although it seems a little soon considering Friday's volatility still being absorbed. Meanwhile, a fresh high could test 144-00.

Crude Oil
March Contract CL, ETF: (USO)
Despite extending the pullback to test 100.35 Monday, the reaction down from meeting the 103.00 target last week still seems both delayed and sluggish, enough to suspect a retest of 103.00 is likely regardless of the pattern's ultimate resolution.

Natural Gas
March Contract NG, ETF: (UNG)
Monday's open did not extend Friday's test of the 3.09 buy signal, but its gap down didn't gain traction - it was within Friday's range, as was the entire session. The gap back to Friday's close was left outstanding to help attract price higher, which would be credible for launching a durable rally back above 3.09.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Featured Videos