Economy: Code Blue

By John Succo Feb 10, 2009 11:35 am
Stimulus provides a jolt - but the heart will continue to fail.
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The President has been using allegory in an attempt to help people understand his plans for improving the economy. When he says "we need a bold enough plan to jolt the economy back to health," we all think of a heart patient suffering arrhythmia.

But the President and the rest of the government seem to believe, or would have us believe, that arrhythmia is the disease itself, not a symptom of the disease. Any doctor would tell you that's not true.

So let's take our analogy further. Let's say the heart, which is beaing irregularly, or even stopping, needs to be jolted back to health. Now we have to diagnose the patient for the cause of the heart trouble. The first thing any good doctor does is to look at the patient's history.

Twenty years ago, our patient -- let's call him Sam -- began eating too much. He lived on rich foods - far too rich for his metabolism to correctly digest. The body naturally began to produce fat cells. Fifteen years ago, Sam was fat, but still looked relatively healthy and exhibited no outward signs of sickness. By this time, he was hooked on rich foods, and just kept eating.

Ten years ago, Sam was getting pretty fat. He had a mild heart attack. That was a warning. But his doctor wasn't very good. He checked all of Sam's other vitals (not very thoroughly) and decided that even though Sam was fat, he didn't need to go on a special diet - he just needed to eat less of what he was eating. He didn't really need to exercise, either. This doctor didn't like confrontation.

But without clear warning and prescribed action, Sam kept eating. Six or so years ago, Sam was obese. He had a major heart attack. The doctor, being his same weak self, was more worried about covering his tracks than he was about doing the right thing for Sam. He told Sam he needed a pacemaker to regulate his heartbeat. This would solve all his problems, and allow Sam to enjoy life the way he had learned to enjoy it.

The pacemaker worked - for a time. Sam went merrily along getting fatter and fatter.

Six months ago, Sam's heart failed: It couldn't support the amount of blubber on his body. It couldn't pump enough blood to all the capillaries that had grown to bring blood to the fat cells. The doctor jolted and jolted the hear trying to start it again; but every time the heart began to pump, the pressure was so great it failed again and again.

Sam is now on life-support. Machines are acting as his heart, and Sam can't get off the machines. So the doctor is now exploring an experimental artificial heart that can pump twice as much blood as a normal heart. The doctor knows Sam might explode from the pressure, but the doctor is more concerned about protecting his practice from lawsuits than he really is about Sam's health.

What Sam really needs is a new doctor. Any rational doctor would tell Sam, who now weighs 800 pounds, that he cannot survive at this weight. Sam needs first to lose the weight that's causing his heart problems.

Without doing that, you can jolt the heart all you want - but it will continue to fail.

The Cast of Characters:

Sam: Consumer

Food: Consumption

Heart: Credit markets

Fat: Debt

Blubber: Extreme debt

Doctor: The Federal Reserve

Pacemaker: Fannie Mae (FNM)
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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(20)
2009-02-10 11:58:09
So, what's wrong with just letting Sam pass...
into the wild blue yonder? So another Sam, or Samjay, or Samantha or Sim is born and the cycle of life goes on until it repeats itself again, another day, another form. No need to drag this on, unless, of course...could it be, there's big money involved. I think I'll just save and hide mine before the vultures come again to feast.
2009-02-10 12:00:47
Code Blue
Code Blue as in, for lack of oxygen? Where oxygen is common sense?
There are doctors that do just what you are saying, maybe because the patient would leave (upon hearing the truth) and go to a doctor that says what he/she wants to hear. Much like our politicians. Great analogy.
2009-02-10 12:01:36
We missed you...
finally a Succo article. Great analogy. Please write more when you are able, you have been sorely missed!
2009-02-10 12:09:26
Bloody Good Mr. P!
The hospital's chairman of the Board should get an honorable mention as well -- as he plans to keep us all on life support.
2009-02-10 12:16:32
Thank God Succo is back
Great analysis, very insightfull. Keep up the good work.
2009-02-10 12:18:23
Mr. Practical Unmasked?
Or the bi-line was messed up (one place says Mr. P and another says Mr. Succo:-)
2009-02-10 12:22:02
Code Blue
Code Blue is hospital-ese for "Critical emergency, bring the crash cart".
2009-02-10 12:25:41
What is exercise?
Exercise is:

Creating jobs at home - making the tough decisions that balance our exports and imports. Sam should be thought of as a child. He can still grow a lot bigger - to the point where his 600 or 700 pounds of fat are perfectly OK in his 6000 pound body. Sam needs to stop getting fatter, and in fact lose fat, but adding another 2000 pounds of muscle and bone would be a good thing.
2009-02-10 13:19:38
too much fat (debt)
Very insightful. However, keep in mind that a major part of the fat (Debt) is the mortgage that the "unqualified" borrowers have. It may be painful to say that people just need to lose the fat (debt/mortgage) through foreclosures. Simply let the natural cycle run its course instead of putting patches here and there. We and the whole economy will recover and prosper one day with or without the patches anyway.
2009-02-10 15:23:02
Pharma industry kickbacks
are part of the motivation of this doctor
2009-02-10 19:06:28
Mr. Practical Unmasked?
I thought Sedacca was Mr. P.

Anyone care to clarify?
2009-02-10 22:11:19
mind body and soul coding at once (in america)
excellant analogy articulated out

very very nice job

thank you!
2009-02-11 00:15:19
Row Jimmy
Grass shack nailed to a pinewood floor.
2009-02-11 07:05:18
Naive description
This is common sense. A description of the current situation. Why you bother to write such an article? If FED is the doctor, who then should be the new one?
2009-02-11 07:50:35
Script Revision
We definitely need to spice this thing up. First, we'll change Fannie/Freddie's role to that of the local crack dealer. Also, you'll need to add a pair of brothels known as the Senate and House.
2009-02-11 08:15:57
Cast of characters
I would like to add one more Excercise: is productivity
2009-02-11 17:29:32
The hospital
Sam has been gorging himself in the hospital cafeteria at no charge, and now that he is in intensive care, and his medical bills are skyrocketing, he just may get the idea that the hospital will continue to keep him alive , as long as he owes them a lot of money.
2009-02-11 17:32:35
"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate"
"It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.â
-Andrew W. Mellon

Heck, if we are headed down the path to hell (high unemployment, high inflation, etc.) no matter what we try to throw at the problem, we might as well follow this mantra. At least we won't be owned by another nation for all of the debts we are racking up that my unborn grandchildren will be lucky to pay off.
2009-09-23 16:53:30
Good Luck John
As an avid follower of your fund(s) and fellow trader I would like to start by saying I apreciate your insight John, and for that I thank you. Possibly some lemonade vitamin water (insert analogous noun here) could have helped the chap in question. Dr. Fed is soon going to be Dr. Doogy Tim Gnightmeir, whom will have more difficulty raising money from China. I strongly agree Debt is the problem and most likely will lead to the currency crisis of the world through 2015. I wish you the best of luck with your Master fund and also to Tommy with Windmill. All bubbles come to a burst, let's just hope it's not the medicine ball either one of us are sitting on. Fight those redemtions tooth and nail and good luck without Ms. Global office manager. Cheers.
2009-09-23 18:35:02
Mr. Practical
"Paging Dr. Proc-tickle, to the OR STAT."
Seems Sam ate Macke's box of crayons, and the big brown one is impacted.

Just kidding.
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