Random Thoughts: Perception Is Reality
Don't assume bailouts are a given.
- Boy, this market sure trades like a couple of twins, eh?
- In this morning's opener, I mentioned that I want to be more constructive for a sustained upside schnitzel ("a" low, not "THE" low in the context of a secular bear market) but the grabby greenback is Jeff Goldblum in this movie.
- The golden rule of trading is that "bid wanted" situations are phenomenal entry points. When someone can't get, er, paid with a fistful of dollars in the red light district, can bank on the currency staging a strong rebound.
- I don't profess to know when the phantom of deflation plays out-the government seems intent on socializing the markets and they've got deep pockets (ours!)-but the bar tab will eventually come due.
- The horse race certainly becomes more interesting when the jockeys are sniffing glue, eh?
- As Aunt Fannie (FNM) continues to rip, I'm starting to sniff for some defined risk shorts (into $41ish perhaps?). I buried a LOT of $70-line puts a few years back-a moment of silence please-but each trade has a life of its own. As Pep, Succ, myself and others have said, nationalization, if and when, won't be in the best interests of the shareholders. Shocker there!
- And you don't think times are tough?
- There was a time when news that CIT Group (CIT) is drawing on a $7.3 billion credit line would have punished the tape. Now, it seems, folks are thinking "Hey, no biggie, if push comes to shove, the Fed will bail 'em out."
- Big picture, that's a very dangerous mindset with which to operate. Given the magnitude of debt and the maze of derivatives, nobody-not even the WWF tag team champs Ben and Hank-can stem the tide or stop the ride.
- Near-term, it's an entirely more difficult dynamic as perception is reality in the marketplace. Thus, it's not a question of whether or not they can bail us out, the market will trade as a function of whether investors believe they can.
- Forever joined in fate? My brother's pooch of 14 years will be buried tomorrow before they pick me up at the train station. I have a strong sense that Justice and Zoë are enjoying each other's company as we speak.
- So it's said, I think gold bugs will be able to pick up the yellow metal with a seven handle at a point.
- Given everything going in the world (mine and otherwise), I had to stop everything to get my NCAA brackets in by the 11:00 AM deadline. I've never been so clueless about the college hoops tourney as this was literally the first time I've looked at the pairings since they were announced.
- Where did I net out? Tennessee, Jed, Georgetown, Stanford and UCLA with the Bruins beating the Vols in the title game.
- Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. And thank you.
- The top story on Bloomberg this morning? "Dollar Advances Against Commodity Currencies as Oil, Gold Extend Declines." Geez, wouldn't it be great if there was a financial platform that expressed that dynamic before it happened?
- Man, when we said Baidu felt "sick" on Tuesday, who knew it was the bird flu? That was a mighty quick fifty points.
- In honor of Zoë, I must share that laser pointers are the single greatest toy ever invented for cats. The irony of ironies is that I picked up a new one on Tuesday just hours before I found the bird curled in a corner. At the very least-which is a lot-Phoebe enjoyed the full benefits of it last night.
- Fare ye well into the bell and enjoy the three-day respite. You've most certainly earned it.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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