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VIDEOMV Mailbag: Sick of Swine Flu Already?
Overblown quasi-epidemic downplays more serious threats.
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There are thousands of people that die every year from flu. Most people think flu is an upset stomach. Real flu is lung- and fever-related.
The media screaming and yelling has gotten out of hand. In 1918, when there was a flu epidemic, there was no communication. A very big difference in knowledge.
I'm not saying there isn't a crisis. I'm just saying, s**t happens. I think this is unlike SARS; this is just stuff. Wash your hands - which your mom told you to do anyway.
You know what the Street is saying. I don't.
Please tell the kids to chill.
Minyan Lynn
Dear Lynn,
Let’s begin by defining our terms and putting them in context:
Pandemic: adj.
1. Widespread; general
2. Medical: Epidemic over a wide geographic area and affecting a large proportion of the population.
As of last night, there were 48 confirmed cases of swine flu in the US, and, according to recent data, as many as 200 deaths worldwide.
For perspective, 36.5 million people live in California, over 10% of the US population of 310 million, give or take. The fatality numbers will certainly rise.
That said, unless they increase 500,000 fold, give or take, they'll still fall short of the “large proportion” definition standard, but be in the neighborhood of a “pandemic” for the purposes of hyperbole. Last year, classified as a “mild” one by numerical standards, 39,000 men, women and children died from various strains of the flu.
What, you may ask, does a genuine and deadly pandemic look like? Horrible. Specifically, a pandemic looks like the 1918 flu outbreak. That pandemic killed a minimum of 30 million worldwide, and 550,000 Americans near equivalent to the fatalities incurred in the Civil War. I'd encourage those looking for more information regarding the 1918 epidemic to see the map at pbs.org.
In September and October of 1918, roughly 1 of every 20 Americans died from the flu. At the moment, only slightly more than 1 in 1,000,000 Americans have been diagnosed as sick in the current outbreak. In New Jersey -- the most densely populated state in the nation -- 5 “probable” cases have been identified to date, none requiring hospitalization.
Given the glaring differences between the current relatively benign, albeit geographically widespread, flu strain and the terrifying plague of 1918, a rational person (defined as “one not working in the media”) may think a voice of calm dissension would be accepted, if not welcomed.
Allow me to offer my personal experience in regards to an effort at being a voice of statistical reason. On last night’s Fast Money, I made an effort to dispense with the hype and ask our guest Joseph Greff, JPMorgan’s (JPM) Gaming, Lodging and Cruise analyst, whether there was evidence of a recovery in the companies he studies, prior to the outbreak over the weekend.
The 2 events that followed, in order, were these: Mr. Greff offered that, at best, there had been a slowing in the rate of decline in broad rates of travel in the companies he follows. Next, Melissa Lee offered a very professional and gracious apology for my apparent lack of sensitivity to those 250 potential victims and their families.
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