Commodities Not Ready to Roll Over Just Yet
According to Bloomberg, hedge funds and other speculators reduced commodity exposure by 23% in the 2 weeks ending June 23. Though this can be attributed, in part, to profit-taking after the first quarterly increase since early 2008, traders aren’t convinced that excess inventories will be corrected any time soon. The effect of any future economic growth on commodity prices is likely to be mixed. Even as higher demand from consumers and businesses for raw materials expands, so too will capacity, because miners, farmers, and drillers will ramp up production.
And the debate is heating up as to whether the longest recession since World War II is on its way out. While George Soros declared the worst of the financial crisis over, and the Federal Reserve said economic contraction is slowing, the World Bank lowered global economic growth forecasts, and economist Nouriel Roubini said higher fuel costs could deepen the ongoing slump.
On Wall Street, investors have been betting on a recovery, as oil-service firms Transocean (RIG) and Schlumberger (SLB) have risen 82% and 55% from recent lows, respectively. And, despite a recent pullback, miners like Freeport MacMoran (FCX) Newpont Mining (NEM), along with steel producers ArcelorMittal (MT) and US Steel (X), have had exceedingly strong years to date after some downright abysmal months.
Well-known hedge managers have jumped on the rising-prices bandwagon: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, threw his weight behind the commodity trade earlier this month, announcing that his hedge fund, Universa Investments, planned on betting on massively higher prices.
But rising commodity prices -- indeed, all rising prices -- are a result of not only constricted supply, but of higher demand. As the US and the world as a whole prepare for a future devoid of cheap and easy credit, old expectations about economic growth must be tossed aside.We're entering a transitional period, one in which economies in both developing and developed nations must readjust to the notion that debt isn't a sustainable vehicle for growth, and that true productivity and innovation must drive any increase in the standard of living. In the long run, this return to traditional capitalistic values will result in a rising tide that lifts all boats.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
How much can they ramp up and how soon? With oil not much, Nat gas, probably a lot.
Copper, iron ore, soy, corn?
Anything but oil constrained by a peak production environment?
Everything is constrained by oil production.
Miners - use large quantities of fossil fuels to strip or dig into the earth to retrieve minerals. Drillers - ditto. Farmers - fossil fuels are everywhere. Tractors, trucks, fertilizers, you name it, it's part of the process of agriculture.
It's hard because so many proponents of Peak Oil also tend to be into Armageddon theory along with it. Peak Oil, though, is simply the idea that the world's oil fields are already past peak oil production. The oil is still there but it becomes increasingly harder and more expensive to pump. What means is not an end to oil, but an end to cheap oil.
"But rising commodity prices -- indeed, all rising prices -- are a result of not only constricted supply, but of higher demand. As the US and the world as a whole prepare for a future devoid of cheap and easy credit, old expectations about economic growth must be tossed aside."
We must also prepare for a future devoid of cheap and easy oil. I would submit that the explosive growth of the late 19th and entire 20th century was completely dependent on cheap fossil fuels. An aging population and the end of cheap energy to me rule out the idea that we'll have another boom time anytime soon.
