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Which Way Will August Rush?


Are bulls or bears more scared right now?


"Summer, summer, summertime, time to sit back and unwind."
DJ Jazzy Jeff and The Fresh Prince

Man, it's so quiet you can almost hear a bonus drop! That's the word on the Street as the Summer Express eyes Labor Day Station.

It's been a full year since investors jumped back into the water following the American Home Mortgage chum and portfolios have been steadily chewed up since.

Forget the bigger boat, Chief Brody-in this perfect credit storm, the sturdiest of vessels have taken in water.

With one eye on the clock, the other on the calendar and still another on the the confluence of inputs that continues to spin the Street, I wanna dive right in and sniff it out.

There's a lot going on-but would you really have it any other way?

Some Random Thoughts:

  • Holy Bolt, Mon! Speed isn't exactly the first thing you think of when you think of Jamaica but snaps to Usain for an insane sprints!

  • Now, if only we could capture that lightening in a bottle, we would solve our energy crisis in one fell swoop.

  • Boo would point to the action in Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) yesterday and say "See? I told ya!"

  • Hoofy would quickly offer that the tape traded fabu in the face of disgrace.

  • That, in a nutshell, is why trading is more of an art than a science and why it attracts some of the world's greatest thinkers.

  • The bulls would prolly applaud if the governement put Fannie and Freddie's equity out of their misery and backed their debt. At least for trade. The real problem would arrive when the next leak springs in the dike and make no mistake, there are alotta springs and just so many fingers.

  • And no, it's not easy-case in point is Andor Capital. I've known Dan B. for many years and he's about as competent as they come. If he's hanging up his cleats, it says something.

  • Everyone seemingly expects the government to swoop in and save the system. That's the problem with Moral Hazard-once it starts, it's hard to stop.

  • Proactive patience is a virtue and yes, I'll offer that as I watch crude jimmy higher this morning (away from $110 defined risk counter-trend support we've been watching).

  • DRG 320 was a level we offered would likely be a good spot for the drugs to take a breather. On cue, they ticked at DRG 319 last week.

  • Wake me up near Exxon-Mobil (XOM) $85 as a nice and tight defined risk short stab.

  • Somebody please get Will Smith out of my head.

  • I walked into my new physical therapist's office last night and the receptionist asked me if I wanted something to drink. "Just some iced knee, please."

  • I don't think she got it. In fact, I haven't seen a stare like that since I walked into the gym and asked where the plain vanilla yoga was.

  • Once upon a time, when market axioms mattered, traders would say "never short a dull tape."

  • I can tell you how I feel about you night and day...

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Positions in MER, FNM

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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