Temporary Declines Don't Change Bullish Outlook for Gold and Silver
The situation remains bullish for gold and silver in the short, medium, and long term. At this time, analysis of the long-term cycles for the white metal strongly supports a bullish scenario.
The EU crisis seems to have reached a worrying new stage, with the flop of the German bond auction and the alarming rise in short-term rates in Spain and Italy. This is a massive erosion of trust, a veritable creeping crisis of credibility, as it spread to France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Austria. Many took Italy's disastrous bond auction on November 25 as a signal that time is running out. Italy sold 6-month bills at a rate of 6.504%, a 14-year high and nearly double the 3.535% rate it received from a similar auction last month.
If you recall what my firm wrote in our last essay on gold and the stock market on December 2, 2011 (see Gold, Stocks Possibly on the Brink of Going Up) you'll surely appreciate the gravity of the situation:
The importance of the EU crisis was underlined last week when the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the euro crisis remained "a key risk to the world economy." The Paris-based research group sharply cut its forecasts for wealthy Western countries and cautioned that growth in Europe could come to a standstill. It warned that the problems that started in Greece almost two years ago would start to infect even rich European countries.
Some international companies are already preparing contingency plans both financial and legal for a possible eurozone breakup, according to the Financial Times.
Apocalyptic visions considered in boardrooms across Europe range from bank failures and the collapse of credit to the destruction of the EU's single market, mass social unrest and a recession or worse. Even the most benign of that range of outcomes would have repercussions well beyond the eurozone – making the issue one of consequence to businesses and government officials worldwide.
Having considered these apocalyptic long-term visions, let's focus on gold in the short term (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com.)
We begin with a look at the long-term gold chart. RSI levels have bottomed close to the 50 level and are now on the way back up. In eight of the nine previous times this level was reached, it coincided with an important bottom for gold, and a significant rally followed. The long-term implications here are bullish based on this.
Two upside target levels appear to be valid at this time. One is at the $1,900 level and could be reached late this year or early in 2012. The second target level could be described as a rough estimate or best guess at this time. It is at the $2,200 level and could be reached sometime around May of next year. Note that the situation may change before these targets are reached – we report what we believe is likely based on the information available today.
In the long-term chart of gold from a non-USD perspective, we see that prices have rallied sharply over the past few weeks and recently corrected in a sort of flag pattern. The rally appears ready to continue with a likely target level in the range of the previous high. This level could be surpassed, but it's likely that first a pause will be seen when this trading range is reached.
Now, let's discuss the possible action in silver.
We begin with a look at the very long-term chart. The five vertical grey lines represent cyclical turning points roughly two years apart and they correspond to major tops or bottoms. The tops were seen in 2006 and 2008 with bottoms reached in 2004 and 2010. The cyclical turning point in play now is more likely to coincide with another bottom. This means that a major rally could be just ahead.
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