Euro And Yen: You Gotta Know When
Tracking the cross rate and realizing it's neither a leading nor a lagging indicator.
The yield inversion of August 2009 was critical for the continuation of the global bull market; not only did it open the much larger pool of lendable American funds up to global yield hogs for purposes of investment and general merrymaking, it opened up global carry trades to the even larger pool of lendable Chinese reserves. The switch in funding for these carry trades had some adverse effects on Japan, including an unwelcome appreciation of the yen and a rise in its sovereign CDS costs.
The return trip in March preceded the incipient move by China to revalue the yuan by about three weeks; this is a coincidence as much as Pearl Harbor or 9/11 were accidents. All previous moves by China with respect to the timing and pace of yuan levels have been choreographed carefully behind the scenes with us, inter alia; those who protest that this is not how things should be run in a democracy are advised to grow up and stop dreaming.
Once the yen became cheaper to borrow, dollar/yuan-based carry trades started to be unwound. Unfortunately, this unwind intersected with the euro's weakness, and the unwinding of carry trades into the euro zone and related blocs started to feed on itself as these unwinds always do. Put a lot of corn in a yield hog's mouth and you will be um, amazed, at journey's end.
The Euro-Yen Cross Rate
The linkages between the yen carry trade into the euro and global bourses (I love that word. Bourses, bourses, bourses, bourses) became very direct after mid-2007 when global interest rates started their decline toward zero and all assets started to become priced in ersatz money. They weakened somewhat between August 2009 and March 2005 as the dollar became cheaper to borrow, but things have reasserted themselves over the past two months.
The effect is different for normalized fixed-income differentials, defined here as the yield spread between benchmark euro-zone (read: German) bonds and Japanese bonds, divided by the euro-zone yield. The linkage between the euro/yen cross rate and this measure is most pronounced at the two-year horizon; the 10-year horizon scarcely is affected.
The most important takeaway, though, is this cross rate is neither a leading nor a lagging indicator of risk preferences. It is a coincident measure by the statistical standards of Granger Causation. Restated, it is a good indicator of itself and tells you what is going on outside of your window at the moment, but it will not put you in the right direction for tomorrow or the day after.
And what is going on outside of your window is an unwinding of global carry trades produced by central banks' collective belief that pushing rates to zero, counterfeiting their own currencies, and encouraging risky behavior is the answer to all problems. Maybe they believe past performance does not predict future results.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.