How a Weak Euro Became Bullish
Stop thinking a strong dollar and weak euro is bearish -- it may actually be the best thing for the stock market.
-- Jonathan Swift
I've been listening to a lot of traders who seem to continue to hold onto the notion that a weak euro (FXE) / strong dollar (UUP) is bearish because it means it would not longer exist. I never quite understood why a lower euro automatically meant the currency would disintegrate. On the contrary, its becoming very clear that the forces of deflation are far stronger in the eurozone than they are here in the U.S., and that they need a weaker currency to import inflation more than we do. In the 1990s, a strong U.S. dollar coincided with a strong stock market, and we may be in the early stages of that type of relationship expressing itself all over again. Perhaps the most important aspect of this is that a strong dollar going forward likely outperforms U.S. Treasuries as money flows not into the bond market, but the new “safe-haven” of large-cap stocks which can absorb big money.
Take a look below at the price ratio of the Powershares DB Up Dollar ETF (UUP) relative to the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF). As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/UUP is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/IEF.
Notice how very gradually the dollar has been outperforming Treasuries since late August following the Summer Crash of 2011. The trend appears to be very early on, as dollars become more valuable to own than government paper at record low yields. What does this potentially mean for the “Winter Resolution” idea I've been writing about, whereby a trend asserts itself and the volatile sideways action of equities comes to an end (see From Fall Melt-Up to Winter Resolution)? If a rising dollar is bullish, it suggests that money may continue to move out of Treasuries and potentially into large-cap stocks which can absorb big sums.
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.