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Random Thoughts: Can the Manic Monday Rally Hold?


The critter compass points north today.

  • Maybe there's hope for me yet!

  • "It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world." --Thomas Jefferson

  • A quick sniff of our trading tiff finds our tea leaves pointing positive. The financials are hanging tough, market breadth is 4:1 positive and the dollar is lower, which is a necessary precursor-but no guarantor-of higher asset classes.

  • In terms of my current positioning, I've set tight trailing stops on my market exposure. Again, while the critter compass points north, I've adopted this strategy out of respect to the risks in the system and with an eye towards "trading for a credit."

  • Valentine's Day is coming up quick for Minyans who wanna send a critter that cares.

  • The opportunity cost of balance? I skipped The Killers concert last night at MSG so I could pull together this week's syndicated missive, which will touch on the potential for a seismic currency readjustment. One day, I'll have to remind myself that it was all worth it.

  • S's over N's today so if the worm turns, look for four-letter land to bear the brunt of Boo's grunt.

  • This is the mirror image of bank balance sheets.

  • In the storied history of the Toddo Sleep-O-Meter, there has never been back-to-back weekend nights when I couldn't capture shut-eye. And yes, in some silly nonsensical way, that factored into my decision to keep my current risk profile tighter than a snare drum. When it stops working, I'll stop following it!

  • I've been trading around energy from the long side for the last several months, most notably carrying blind risk through the holiday stretch when I was away from my screens (a rarity for me). While I made sales upon my return, Hoofy and I have together dabbled on the dips ever since.

    On Friday, I noted that I was going to slap a trailing stop on my USO as a function of discipline. In the interest of full disclosure, I was indeed stopped out but this morning, when it opened with a pink hue, I redipped my wick for a pure trade.

    While my "sense" has been that Texas Tea could again see $60/brl, I'm keeping a close and watchful eye on $50, which has been a level of lore for bovine so sore. In terms of my current try, old school Minyans know I'm not a rear-view trader, I simply wanted to provide context to this discussion. For if and when $50 arrives, I'll likely lighten my load.

    Click to enlarge

  • "Would we have ever thought we would see the day when we'd be using that terminology? 'Nationalization of the banks?'" Nancy Pelosi, in a recent NYT article.

  • Uh, Yeah Nan, we've been talking about it for a few years in Minyanville. As we pride ourselves in doing our fair share in "being a part of the solution," we're more than happy to offer you a gratis subscription to the Buzz & Banter.

  • Mother Morgan (MS)-which traded dry and drier last week in the face of supply-continues to out-perform its peers to the upside.

  • Societal Acrimony? Why would there possibly be societal acrimony?

  • Please note that Caterpillar (CAT) and Pfizer (PFE) are a 34-point drag on the DJIA (which is why I always "use" the S&P 500 as my mainstay market proxy).

  • Note to self: Knee rehabilitation should not include three hours of hoops on a Friday night. While I cleaned the glass like a monster, I paid for it in spades the rest of the weekend. Either way, it sure felt good to get back out there and mix it up!

  • I will again point to Minyan Peter's Open Letter to Timothy Geithner as Minyanville does it's part to be part of the solution rather than part of an ever-increasing societal and structural problem.

  • This Hoofy and Boo episode on former Broadcom CEO Henry Nicholas remains one of my faves.

  • Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow, Minyans, so keep that in the back of your crowded keppe as we edge through this Manic Monday.

  • Take care of the minutes and the hours will take care of themselves.


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Position in USO

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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