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Random Thoughts: Can the Manic Monday Rally Hold?


The critter compass points north today.

  • Maybe there's hope for me yet!

  • "It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world." --Thomas Jefferson

  • A quick sniff of our trading tiff finds our tea leaves pointing positive. The financials are hanging tough, market breadth is 4:1 positive and the dollar is lower, which is a necessary precursor-but no guarantor-of higher asset classes.

  • In terms of my current positioning, I've set tight trailing stops on my market exposure. Again, while the critter compass points north, I've adopted this strategy out of respect to the risks in the system and with an eye towards "trading for a credit."

  • Valentine's Day is coming up quick for Minyans who wanna send a critter that cares.

  • The opportunity cost of balance? I skipped The Killers concert last night at MSG so I could pull together this week's syndicated missive, which will touch on the potential for a seismic currency readjustment. One day, I'll have to remind myself that it was all worth it.

  • S's over N's today so if the worm turns, look for four-letter land to bear the brunt of Boo's grunt.

  • This is the mirror image of bank balance sheets.

  • In the storied history of the Toddo Sleep-O-Meter, there has never been back-to-back weekend nights when I couldn't capture shut-eye. And yes, in some silly nonsensical way, that factored into my decision to keep my current risk profile tighter than a snare drum. When it stops working, I'll stop following it!

  • I've been trading around energy from the long side for the last several months, most notably carrying blind risk through the holiday stretch when I was away from my screens (a rarity for me). While I made sales upon my return, Hoofy and I have together dabbled on the dips ever since.

    On Friday, I noted that I was going to slap a trailing stop on my USO as a function of discipline. In the interest of full disclosure, I was indeed stopped out but this morning, when it opened with a pink hue, I redipped my wick for a pure trade.

    While my "sense" has been that Texas Tea could again see $60/brl, I'm keeping a close and watchful eye on $50, which has been a level of lore for bovine so sore. In terms of my current try, old school Minyans know I'm not a rear-view trader, I simply wanted to provide context to this discussion. For if and when $50 arrives, I'll likely lighten my load.

    Click to enlarge

  • "Would we have ever thought we would see the day when we'd be using that terminology? 'Nationalization of the banks?'" Nancy Pelosi, in a recent NYT article.

  • Uh, Yeah Nan, we've been talking about it for a few years in Minyanville. As we pride ourselves in doing our fair share in "being a part of the solution," we're more than happy to offer you a gratis subscription to the Buzz & Banter.

  • Mother Morgan (MS)-which traded dry and drier last week in the face of supply-continues to out-perform its peers to the upside.

  • Societal Acrimony? Why would there possibly be societal acrimony?

  • Please note that Caterpillar (CAT) and Pfizer (PFE) are a 34-point drag on the DJIA (which is why I always "use" the S&P 500 as my mainstay market proxy).

  • Note to self: Knee rehabilitation should not include three hours of hoops on a Friday night. While I cleaned the glass like a monster, I paid for it in spades the rest of the weekend. Either way, it sure felt good to get back out there and mix it up!

  • I will again point to Minyan Peter's Open Letter to Timothy Geithner as Minyanville does it's part to be part of the solution rather than part of an ever-increasing societal and structural problem.

  • This Hoofy and Boo episode on former Broadcom CEO Henry Nicholas remains one of my faves.

  • Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow, Minyans, so keep that in the back of your crowded keppe as we edge through this Manic Monday.

  • Take care of the minutes and the hours will take care of themselves.


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