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Will the Progress of Human Kind Retrace 0.618?


We have all the elements for a textbook apocalypse.

In my first article for Minyanville, "Riding the Elliott Wave", I wrote about a probable large Elliott Wave Flat pattern at the Cycle level of degree that spanned the period from 2000 to 2007. I projected a subsequent five-wave pattern down to complete the pattern, and it happened almost exactly in the manner that I projected, ending in March 2009.

Meanwhile, Robert Prechter was projecting the end of the Cycle degree, Super Cycle degree, and Millennium Cycle degree all at once, a powerful confluence of terminating cycles and a corresponding correction that would dismantle the fabric of our economy if not permanently, then for a very long time.

I'm a glass half full kind of guy. I held out on embracing this dire forecast until I could have a chance to interpret the move up from the March 2009 low. Since then, I've attempted to stretch every wave in every time frame into the plausible limit of an impulse wave.

Unfortunately, optimism isn't enough. I caved about a month ago and started writing that the wave up from the March low was probably corrective. If you don't believe in the Elliott wave, you're lucky not to have to ponder the consequences of such a correction.

While there are numerous possible outcomes, none of them are good and a few are down right apocalyptic. The most harrowing implication is a 0.618 retrace of the Millennium Cycle of degree. A 0.618 retrace of the progress of humankind for the last 1,000 years.

When you think about it, there are more than a few societal confluence points to corroborate a 0.618 retrace of the Millennium Cycle wave.

The current debt crisis is worse than what preceded the Great Depression. It is probably not bad enough to wipe out more than 60% of progress over the past 1,000 years, but it could definitely serve as a catalyst to start the downward spiral.

Half of the world's population is currently impacted by scarce water supplies. Water scarcity is an epidemic in Africa, India, and the Middle East. There are two billion people in the world who don't have access to safe drinking water.

Closer to home, the Colorado River is running dry in several places. Analysts predict Lake Mead will be dry by 2021. While the situation in the southwest US is critical, a total of 36 states are facing water shortages.

A continued shortage of water could definitely alter the landscape for the worse and facilitate societal destruction. Water scarcity is a probable catalyst for 0.618 Millennium wave retrace.

A global pandemic isn't getting the same media attention that it did a few years ago, but the World Health Organization and the US government are at their highest state of alert.

Our government is "concerned that the ongoing outbreaks of H1N1 flu (swine flu) in humans and H5N1 avian influenza in birds could turn into human influenza pandemics that would have significant global health, economic, and social consequences." In the 1300s, the bubonic plague wiped out an estimated 30% to 50% of the population of Europe.

I don't know about you, but when I lose money, my resistance to illness is lowered. A global pandemic is definitely a probable catalyst for a 0.618 retrace of the Millennium wave.
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