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VIDEOWave Anatomy
Methods of an Elliotician.
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Either a motive/impulse wave down (5-3-5-3-5) as indicated on Chart 1, or a (5-3-5-3) following an extended 3rd wave as indicated on Chart 2 has completed.
Chart 1
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Chart 2
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Most of the supplemental indicators show that five waves are complete, but they don’t eliminate the possibility that we're in the 4th wave following an extended 3rd. For example, in Chart 1 the ratios for five waves completed are perfect. However, a retracement to the 1975-1985 area and then another visit to 1950 would also be a perfect ratio. Chart 1 also shows how I use volume to corroborate my wave count. Notice the expanded volume that accompanies a third wave. The spike in buying volume supports the end of a 5th wave. However, it would also accompany a 4th wave following an extended 3rd wave.
In Chart 2 I indicate the next major support levels that haven't been breached yet. 1950 is very strong and could support another wave down. If it doesn’t, notice how the next common 5th wave Fibonacci extension level, 0.618, lines up with the next major support level (1920-1925). It's also very clear from this chart how past resistance becomes future support; a general rule of technical analysis. Chart 2 also shows the RSI at a level that supports a bounce. This support level has four turn occurrences since January and no failures.
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Chart 3 shows the two probable counts combined in one chart, and the probable retracement level if we have completed 5 waves already (2001-2015). It also shows another supplemental indicator, a divergence in the Stochastic, which is common with 5th waves. If we haven’t completed 5 waves yet, but the 1950 support level holds on the 5th wave, these retracement levels are still valid. If we continue down to complete the 5 waves at the 1925 area, which is less probable, then the likely retracement target from there would be 1988-2003 with a low end bias.
Chart 3
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Chart 4 shows the probable retracement area (1975-1985) if we have only completed 3 waves and this is wave 4.
Chart 4
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At this point, the strength and retracement level of the bounce will be the best indicator. I tried to get a count on a smaller timeframe to distinguish between the two probabilities, but it's not any clearer. If the bounce goes higher than 1985 the probability favors that five waves have finished. In that case we will probably retrace to between 2001 and 2015. A turn before 1985, favors that we still have a fifth wave to go. In this case, if 1950 is clearly broken, then 1920/25 is likely.
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