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Trading Radar: Can the Rally Stay on Track?

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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Equity markets have rallied this year, and the major question plaguing the markets next week is whether or not they can continue the pace. News is expected out of Europe, with Greece on the verge of a deal with private creditors to reduce its public debt holdings by half. Conflicting reports have indicated that a deal may be reached this weekend.

Globally, China reports its manufacturing data amidst debate as to whether or not the country is in for a hard or soft landing. Recent easing actions by the Chinese Central Bank have muted the growth slowdown in the Chinese economy. In Europe, it will be important to keep an eye on the unemployment and manufacturing numbers as austerity measures begin to kick in.

In the US, jobs data comes out later in the week, along with consumer confidence numbers as well. This will help determine whether or not the US is beginning its move out of a recession and whether the market can continue to churn higher.

Important earnings reports include Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Amazon (AMZN), UPS (UPS), Dow Chemicals (DOW), and US Steel (X).


Monday, January 30

US Economics
08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.4%
08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.1%
08:30 PCE Deflator – consensus 2.3%
08:30 PCE Core – consensus 1.7%
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing – consensus 0
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b in 9 to 10-year notes
11:30 US to sell $31b in 3-month, $29b 6-month bills

Global Economics
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
23:30 JPY Household Spending
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate
23:50 JPY Industrial Production
5:00 Italy to sell up to EU4b 4.75% 2017, up to EU2b 5% 2022, and 3.75% 2016, 3.75% 2021 bonds
9:00 France to sell up to EU4b 84-day bills

Earnings
Before: WWW, GCI, PHG, HAE, ONB
After: BIRT, AEIS, ALGN, ARRY, BIDU, GGG, HTLF, BOLX, ICUI, IDTI, KRC, MCK, MSTR, MSPD, OLN, OFG, PRXL, RGA, RCII, RTEC, SLG, SFG, TGI


Tuesday, January 31

US Economics
08:30 Employment Cost Index – consensus 0.4%
09:00 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
09:00 S&P/CS 20 City SA – consensus -0.45%
09:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 – consensus -3.22%
09:45 Chicago Fed PMI – consensus 63
10:00 Consumer Confidence – consensus 68
10:00 NAPM-Milwaukee – consensus 57.3
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b in 25 to 30-year notes
11:30 U.S. to sell 4-week bills

Global Economics
EUR German CPI
EUR German Retail Sales
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
08:55 German Unemployment Change
09:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Change
13:30 CAD GDP

Earnings
Before: AMG, AXE, ADM, ARMH, AVY, BIIB, CE, CEVA, CIT, CNH, DHR, LLY, ETR, XOM, GKSR, GNTX, HRS, HHS, HW, HP, ITW, NRGY, KLIC, LLL, LXK, MPC, HZO, MAT, MHP, MTH, OSK, PCAR, PNR, PFE, PCH, PROV, RTIX, SAIA, STL, TECH, TLAB, TNB, TYC, X, UPS, VLO, WDR
After: ACE, ACXM, AFL, AFOP, AMZN, AMCC, AJG, AZPN, BBOX, BXP, EPAY, BRCM, CHRW, BCR, CYT, DLB, FTNT, HLIT, HA, ILMN, IVAC, IXYS, JKHY, JDAS, JLL, KEYN, MANH, MTW, MPW, MWA, MYGN, NATI, PSEM, PLT, QGEN, RSYS, STX, SLGN, STYL, SU, TCRD, UBNT, UIS, VRTU, WRB, WBSN, WPRT


Wednesday, February 1

US Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change – consensus 185K
10:00 Construction Spending – consensus 0.5%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing – consensus 54.5
10:00 ISM Prices Paid – consensus 49.8
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales – consensus 10.50M
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales – consensus 13.55M

Global Economics
01:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing
08:15 CHF Retail Sales
08:55 EUR German PMI
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate
5:15 Germany to sell add'l EU5b 10-yr notes

Earnings
Before: AET, AGYS, AMSC, ASCA, AOL, ARW, ATMI, AUDC, ALV, BEAV, GIB, CVLT, COCO, DWSN, DSPG, ENR, ENTG, EPD, BEN, HBI, HSY, IACI, ITG, LQDT, MAN, MKTX, MDCI, NDAQ, NI, NOC, OIIM, PMT, RDWR, ST, TMO, TUP, VHS, WHR
After: NDN, ABCO, AFFX, ALGT, ALL, DOX, AFG, AMP, AMLN, AIZ, ATW, AVB, AVNW, BYI, BMC, CELL, CBT, CACI, CDNS, CMO, CRME, CENT, CMG, COHU, CNQR, CLB, CMRE, CVTI, CCK, EDMC, EA, EXXI, ENTR, EQR, ESS, EXAR, FBHS, GMCR, GTAT, HAIN, HI, INSP, IPHI, ININ, ISIL, JDSU, KMPR, LVS, MKL, MTSN, MDU, MEAS, MERU, MKSI, NETL, NQ, NEU, OTEX, OPWV, QCOM, QNST, RLD, REG, SGMO, SWM, SHOR, SFLY, SLH, SRDX, SYA, TSO, TLLP, TTEK, TSCO, VASC, VMC, WGL


Thursday, February 2

US Economics
07:30 Challenger Job Cuts
08:00 RBC Consumer Outlook Index
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity – consensus 0.8%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs – 1.0%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 370K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3535K
3:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee

Global Economics
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone PPI
5:00 France to sell 4.25% 2018 bonds

Earnings
Before: ACM, AGN, ADS, ATK, AZN, BZH, BHE, BX, BSX, BCO, CAM, CSL, CI, CME, CUB, CMI, DB, DO, DHX, DOW, EXP, RDEN, EVR, GR, IP, IVC, K, KELYA, KEM, KNSY, LSTR, LEA, LII, MHO, MA, MMS, MDC, MD, MRK, MTOR, MSCI, MWIV, NOV, NCI, NYT, NUS, ODFL, ONNN, PTEN, PENN, PHM, ROLL, RSTI, ROP, RCL, RGLD, R, SBH, SLE, SNA, SNE, HOT, SPH, SX,C, TE TEN, TDW, TRCR, USG, VIAB, WBC, WEC, XEL
After: APKT, AATI, ALKS, NLY, BEBE, BKXH, WIFI, BRS, CLMS, CPT, CATM, CFN, CAVM, CBG, CHEF, COGO, COLM, CNW, CTCT, CYMI, DRIV, EW, EXAM, EXTR, FISV, GCAP, GNW, GILD, HAYN, INFN, IN, IRF, XXIA, KEX, MXL, MCHP, MAA, MTX, MTSC, MFLX, NFG, N, NSR, EGOV, NOA, NVLS, OPLK, PACB, PCCC, PKI, POWI, PWER, PFG, RDK, SIGI, SIMG, SIMO, SSD, SMT, SRCL, SUN, TTWO, TSYS, THQI, TRMB, UTI, VRTX, ZOLT


Friday, February 3

US Economics
08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls – consensus 150K
08:30 Change in Private Payrolls – consensus 170K
08:30 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls – consensus 13K
08:30 Unemployment Rate – consensus 8.5%
08:30 Average Hourly Earnings – consensus 1.9%
08:30 Average Weekly Hours – consensus 34.4
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite – consensus 53.1
10:00 Factory Orders – consensus 1.5%

Global Economics
CNY Industrial Profits YTD
01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI
07:00 CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index
08:55 EUR German PMI
09:30 GBP PMI
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales
12:00 CAD Unemployment Rate

Earnings
Before: ABMD, AXL, AON, BEAM, BAH, CLX, CEG, UFS, EL, HNT, IMN, KNL, MAC, MOD, MGI, SPG, SIRO, SEP, SPB, TSN, WY, YRCW


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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