Trading Radar: Alcoa Leads the Way Into Earnings Season

By Michael Sedacca Jan 06, 2012 4:30 pm

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.



Next week we have rate decisions from two of the major central banks -- the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The former is expected to keep its rates unchanged at 0.50% and boost the current QE target to 600 billion pounds. The latter is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% after it extended 489 billion euros in loans to European banks last month. It will also outline its future policy on Thursday, including any plans it may have outside of the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) that is scheduled to occur on February 28.

On Monday, German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy are scheduled to meet in Berlin to discuss the ongoing debt crisis. Currently Germany has stonewalled any further easing while the rest of Europe (save Ireland) has been begging for more bailouts.

Italy also has a larger-than-normal amount of debt auctions next week as the country needs to roll over upward of 300 billion euros in debt this year. Currently, borrowing costs for the country have steepened, with 2-year notes yielding 5% and 10-year notes yielding around 7%. Recently, poor results from sovereign debt auctions have played havoc in the US equity markets.

Key earnings reports include aluminum producer Alcoa (AA), chip maker OCZ, homebuilder Lennar (LEN), and US bank JPMorgan (JPM).


Monday, January 9

US Economics
3:00 Consumer Credit – consensus $7.0b
11:00 Fed to sell $8b-$8.75b notes/bonds in 1 year range
11:30 U.S. to sell $29b 3-month and $27b 6-month bills

Global Economics
CNY CPI
00:30 AUD Retail Sales
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
11:00 German Industrial Production
15:30 CAD Business Outlook Future Sales
5:15 Germany to sell EU4b 6-month bills
9:00 France to sell up to EU1.7b 364-day, EU1.8b 182-day, EU4.2b 91-day Bills

Earnings
Before: AYI, MG, SCHN
After: AA, OCZ, SMSC, WDFC


Tuesday, January 10

US Economics
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – consensus 0.5%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.15b notes in 7 to 30-year range
11:30 U.S. to sell 4-week bills
11:30 U.S. to sell $25b 52-week bills
1:00 U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes

Global Economics
CNY Trade Balance
13:15 CAD Housing Starts
5:00 Greece to sell EU1.25b 182-day bills

Earnings
Before:
After: SNX


Wednesday, January 11

US Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book
11:00 Fed to buy $2.25b-$2.75b in 25 to 30-year notes
1:00 U.S. to sell $21b in 10-yr reopened notes

Global Economics
CNY New Yuan Loans
05:00 JPY Leading Index
08:00 EUR German Real GDP Growth
09:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance
5:15 Germany to sell EU4b 5-yr notes

Earnings
Before: LEN, LEDS, SVU
After: DRWI, XFO, FUL


Thursday, January 12

US Economics
08:30 Advance Retail Sales – consensus 0.2%
08:30 Retail Sales Less Autos – consensus 0.3%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas – consensus 0.3%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 375k
08:30 Continuing Claims
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.4%
2:00 Monthly Treasury Budget Statement – consensus -$79.0B
11:00 Fed to purchase $8b-$8.75b notes in 1 to 2-yr range
1:00 U.S. to sell $13b 30-yr reopened bonds

Global Economics
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey
07:00 EUR German CPI
09:30 GBP Industrial Production
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target
12:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
4:30 Spain to sell 4.25% 2016, 3.25% 2016, 4% 2015 bonds
5:00 Italy to sell bills

Earnings
Before: INFY, SJR
After: ZZ


Friday, January 13

US Economics
08:30 Import Price Index – consensus 8.2%
08:30 Trade Balance – consensus -$44.6B
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence Statement – consensus 70.5
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes in 9 to 10-year range

Global Economics
CNY Industrial Production
CNY Real GDP
CNY Retail Sales
04:00 JPY Bankruptcies
09:30 GBP PPI
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance
5:00 Italy to sell bonds/floating rate notes

Earnings
Before: JPM


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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