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Trading Radar: Will the US Continue Its Path of Growth?

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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Over the weekend, G-20 finance ministers will meet to discuss any additions to the International Monetary Fund (or IMF) after it made large contributions to Greece and other peripheral European nations. Currently, the US has stated that it will not make any additions to the IMF.

In Europe, despite the approval of the Greek bailout package from a variety of finance ministers, the Dutch and German governments still need to approve the package. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the European Central Bank (or ECB) will accept bids for the special 3-year Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), a widely anticipated event. Economists are expecting banks to borrow an estimated 470 billion euros from the ECB at a rate of 1%.

Also in Europe, Germany will report its unemployment number for the month of January. Last month Germany reported the lowest unemployment number in two decades. European leaders will be holding a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss increasing the bank firewall by enlarging or joining the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism (ESM). So far, officials have failed to leverage the size of these bailout funds.

In the US on Wednesday we will learn the second revision for the fourth-quarter GDP. Current estimates place the US growing at a rate of 2.8% per year. We also will learn the consumer confidence number, something that has been a great indicator of stock market movement in the past. Also on Wednesday the Fed will release its schedule of Operation Twist purchases and sales of US Treasuries through Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) for the month of March.

Key earnings include Cablevision (CVC), Transocean (RIG,) Madison Square Garden (MSG), First Solar (FSLR), and Kroger (KR).


Monday, February 27

US Economics
10:00 Pending Home Sales – consensus 1.0%
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing – consensus 15
11:00 Fed buying $4.25b-$5b notes in 6 to 8-year range
11:30 U.S. to sell $33b 3-month, $31b in 6-month bills

Global Economics
23:50 JPY Retail Trade
Belgium to sell 3.5% 2017 bonds, 4.25% 2022 bonds, 4.25% 2041 bond
12:00 Germany's Bundestag votes on the Greek bailout package

Earnings
Before: AES, AWI, ATRC, CCC, CHTR, CTB, LOW, MTRN, KWK, SVNT, TREX, TRS, UNS, VRX, VC, XUE
After: VNET, AEGN, ARMS, CECO, CHMT, CCM, CLGX, CRAY, CVI, DPM, ENOC, ERT, EXM, AG, FFN, GXP, HGSI, IL, JAZZ, KAMN, KAR, MRX, MR, NOAH, PCLN, RWT, SLXP, SINA, BID, SWN, STXS, SYKE, TWGP, TUDO, UHS, URS, PRTS, VVUS, VNO, WES, ZAGG


Tuesday, February 28

US Economics
08:30 Durable Goods Orders – consensus -1.0%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transportation – consensus 0.0%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.5%
09:00 S&P/CS 20 City Index SA – consensus -0.30%
09:00 S&P/CS Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence – consensus 63
10:00 Richmond Fed – consensus 12
11:00 Fed to buy $4.25b-$5b notes in 8 to 10-year range
11:30 U.S. to sell 4-week bills, $20b 49-day bills

Global Economics
07:00 EUR German Consumer Confidence Survey
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator
13:00 EUR German CPI
23:50 JPY Industrial Production
Italy to sell up to EU2.5b in 4.75% 2017 bonds, up to EU3.75b in 5.5% 2022 bonds
5:00PM NY Time – Greek parliament votes on austerity measures
09:30 ECB calls for bids on 3-yr and 3-month LTRO

Earnings
Before: ABVT, AMED, WTR, ARCC, ARIA, AMAP, AZO, BMO, CVC, CRZO, TAST, CDI, CRNT, GTLS, XTEX, DSX, DPZ, ECL, EP, EPB, EVEP, FDML, FE, FIG, FDP, GCAP, HSII, HFC, IXPL, IPCC, MGLN, MENT, BABY, NRG, NWN, ODP, OMG, OSG, PRX, PQ, POZN, RBA, RDC, SAFM, SDRL, SRE, SAH, SJI, TECD, THC, TTI, VIT, VPHM, VSI, WNR, XYL
After: AONE, APEI, ARI, AGO, BGFV, BTUI, PSS, CPNO, DWA, DY, ETM, EXAC, EXLS, FARO, FOE, GTY, GEVO, TEG, IRWD, JOEZ, KOG, LXU, MWE, NNI, BIN, QUAD, SGMS, SNDA, JOE, STEC, SUNH, TTEC, RIG, PANL, VELT, VRSK, VOCS, WRC, YOKU


Wednesday, February 29

US Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:30 GDP QoQ – consensus 2.8%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 2.0%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 0.4%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.1%
09:45 Chicago Fed PMI – consensus 61.3
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
08:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
09:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI
23:50 JPY Capital Spending
Germany to sell additional EU4b in 10-yr notes
11:15NY Time 3-yr LTRO completes

Earnings
Before: AH, AYR, AMRC, CRI, CNP, CEDC, COST, DRH, DM, END, FCH, GPX, HPT, INXN, ISIS, ITT, JOY,M LIZ, MHR, MIDD, NOG, NXTM, OXF, PNM, RRMS, SFE, SODA, SPRD, SPLS, STWD, WFT, YGE
After: ADPI, BWC, BSFT, DVR, CWT, CWST, CHRM, STV, FIX, CPRT, CPIX, DAR, DGI, DRC, EGLE, EIX, EEP, EPIQ, EXL, FNSR, GMXR, GEF, HTGC, HSFT, ICFI, KRA, LHCG, MMLP, MTZ, MBI, MDR, MDVN, NKTR, PETM, KWR, QDEL, RENN, RJET, BOX, SSW, SIGM, STNR, WCAA


Thursday, March 1

US Economics
08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.5%
08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.4%
08:30 PCE Deflator – consensus 2.3%
08:30 PCE Core – consensus 0.2%
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 355K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3423K
10:00 Construction Spending – consensus 1.0%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing – consensus 54.5
10:00 ISM Prices Paid- consensus 58.0
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales – consensus 14M
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales – consensus 11M

Global Economics
01:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing
06:45 CHF GDP
08:55 EUR German PMI
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone CPI Estimate
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate
23:30 JPY CPI

France to sell 3.5% 2026 bonds, 3% 2022 bonds, 3.75% 2019 bonds, 4.25% 2017 bonds
Dutch Parliament will vote on Greek bailout package
EU leaders hold a summit in Brussels discussing the EFSF and ESM

Earnings
Before: AIXG, ARQL, BIG, BRLI, CHOP, CNSL, DIN, DUSA, FXCM, HEES, SNAK, JRCC, DATE, KCP, KR, MSO, MCGC, MEA, MEI, BKR, MITI,MDS, NAFC, ORN, PETD, PRFT, PNCL, PRIM, SOL, RNO, SNMX, SMP, TD, VNR, WRI, WEN, FUR, ZIOP
After: ADUS, ALSK, AMSF, ASNA, AUTH, CBEY, CHEF, CSA, COGO, CCSC, DEPO, BAGL, ESL, EXAM, FSLR, FLOW, FL, GNMK, GERN, GTE, IDSY, LAVA, MITL, MOTR, NGD, OPTR, MALL, MKTG, RST, SATC, TPC, VISN, WPRT, ZGNX


Friday, March 2

US Economics
09:45 NY Fed ISM
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics
01:00 CNY China non-manufacturing PMI
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone PPI
13:30 CAD GDP
5:00 Italy to sell I/L bonds, zero coupon notes

Earnings
Before: CIS, GCO, MSG, SUP, YRCW
After: CIM, HOGS


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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