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Bulls Set for a Breakout


Probability of a break southward has declined dramatically.

On Friday afternoon, with 6 minutes left in the trading week, Ulysses's wooden horse got dragged into Troy. Yesterday, it opened up, and it wasn't full of Grecian soldiers; instead, gifts of bids came raining down for the bulls of Troy.

My only contention is the volume was lackluster at best. Nonetheless, the break occurred and only left one sister, the eldest (the Dow), below its respective 200-DMA. So at this point, does an investor jump in with both feet and hope for the best? If this is a complete cyclical (1-5 years) trend reversal, there's one more significant technical action needed - confirmation.

Most technical actions have a retest, especially if they occur with low volume. For a breakout, what once was a resistance ceiling should now be a support floor. The SPX never broke its smaller secondary upward trend, unlike its younger sisters (the NDX & the Russell (RUT)), and is therefore still intact.

Once the market broke through the 930 level yesterday, and didn't reverse, this should be the new floor. As for the now-infamous "grand" (1,000) level the SPX grappled with in October and November of last year, that's only a chip shot from here.

Click to enlarge

As previously stated, my concerns are manifold, given this latest move - but, in the nearly 20 years I've been managing money, that's precisely when the market throws you a curve. It's just a matter of how you handle the pitch.

So, to answer aforementioned question: As long as the market's secondary upward trend remains intact and has a successful "low-volume" retest of the 930 area, the market remains bullish, and the probability of a break southward has declined dramatically.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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