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Prieur Perspective: The Makings of a Major Uptrend?


Mixed data as markets suffer short-term swings.

Words from the Wise this week comes to you in a shortened format as I don't have access to my normal research resources while on the road in Europe (also see my post Gone AWOL -- to Slovenia and Switzerland). Although very little commentary is provided, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is included.

The past week's performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below -- a mixed bag, so to speak.

A summary of the movements of major stock markets for the past week as well as various other measurement periods is provided below. Although many indices saw little change, some short-term swings occurred in between.

Stock market returns for the week ranged from top performers Côte d'Ivoire (+7.5%), Hong Kong (+3.8%), Taiwan (+3.5%), Argentina (+3.3%), and Bangladesh (+3.0%) to Ghana (-12.7%), Egypt (-11.1%), Nigeria (-10.7%), Cyprus (-6.6%), and the United Arab Emirates (-6.1%) at the other end of the scale.

John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that as far as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are concerned, the leaders for the week included iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT) (+6.6%), Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) (+5.9%), and iShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH) (+4.4%). On the other side of the performance spectrum, laggards were centered in the energy sector, including United States Gasoline (UGA) (-5.9%) and iShares Dow Jones US Oil and Gas Exploration (IEO) (-5.2%).

Back to the stock markets. The key moving average levels for the major US indices are given in the table below. The indices are all trading above the 50-day moving average, but whereas the S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, and Russell 2000 Index are also trading above their respective 200-day lines, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Index are still below this key line. In order for a major uptrend to manifest itself, an upturn in the 200-day average itself also needs to take place.

For more discussion on the direction of stock markets, see my recent posts Richard Russell: Competitive Devaluations to Spur On Gold, Video-O-Rama: Potpourri of Bulls and Bears, Global Stock Market Declines -- Threatening Moving Averages, Bill King: Deflation Trade Back In Vogue, and Technical Talk: Seasonal Trends Less Bullish. (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe's webcast of June 26, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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