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Two Ways To Play: Deere in Headlights?


Strengthen your portfolio in good times and bad.

High on Yen?

Bloomberg reports the yen rose to a 12-week high against the euro and the strongest levels in two months against the British pound as investors unwound the carry trade on concerns of a slowing global economy.

The Japanese currency rose against all 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. This comes after Japan, the world's second largest economy after the U.S., contracted at an annualized 2.4% pace in the quarter ending June 30 according to the Cabinet Office in Tokyo. Official figures also show the U.S. economy contracted in the fourth quarter of last year. For more, see Mr. Practical's Minyan Mailbag.

From the Bull Pen: Those bullish on the yen can play the ETF (FXY); sell-stops can be set in the near term below $90.

From the Bear Cave: For those that believe the U.S. dollar is rallying for all the wrong reasons and is simply going through a correction, bears can choose the dollar bearish fund (UDN). Limit orders on this thinly traded stock, and sell-stops can be set below $27.

Deere Shares Drop

Shares of Deere (DE) are dropping this morning. According to Bloomberg, the world's largest maker of farm equipment reported 3Q earnings below analysts' expectations due to higher input costs. Profits rose 7.1% to $575 mln or $1.32 per share while sales increased 17% to $7.74 bln. Analysts were expecting $1.37 per share on sales of $7.19 bln. Higher prices for its tractors and combines weren't enough to offset a $140 mln increase in raw material costs from a year earlier. Further, the company projected 4Q results below analysts' forecasts with net income coming in at $425 mln vs. expectations of $490 mln.

From the Bull Pen: Cummins (CMI) may be a better alternative for bulls. This engine maker is not too far off its 52 week high. A pullback towards $68 could be interesting. Sell-stops can be set below.

From the Bear Cave: Is $35 support now resistance for the Agriculture ETF (DBA)? Bears can play the downside if and when the stock rallies to that level. Buy-stops can be set above.

For more ideas in real time throughout the trading day, check out Minyanville's Buzz & Banter.

Quick Check Around the World

Asian markets mostly fell with the Nikkei dropping -2.11%, Hang Seng -1.61%, Shanghai -0.44%, and Taiwan down -0.02%.

In Europe the CAC is lower -1.68%, DAX -1.56% and FTSE -1.18%.

As of 9:15 AM EST, S&P futures are lower -6 points to 1285, and Nasdaq futures are off -2.5 points to 1942.

A Look At Commodities

Commodities are higher. Crude oil is up +0.88 to 113.86. Gold is higher +10.00 to 818.20. Silver is up +0.140 to 14.615, and Copper is up +7.05 to 330.55.

The dollar index is higher +0.124 to 76.276.

On the Radar.

Import Price Index (m/m): 1.7% vs. 1.0% cons.
Import Price Index (y/y): 21.6% vs. 20.4% cons.
Advance Retail Sales: -0.1% inline.
Retail Sales less Autos: 0.4% vs. 0.5% cons.

10:00 Business Inventories: 0.5% cons.

Get over the hump! Good luck!
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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