An Angry World Tries To Find Its Footing
The 2008 low is being tested daily, but will it be breached?
My mother used to say "when it's on your lung, it's on your tongue." I never really knew what that meant but I'm fairly sure it had to do with thinking before I speak.
That's easier said than done when sharing a real-time stream of consciousness and rather than heed her advice, I'll let these zingers rip through my fingers as we power up our Thursday pup:
- I have no official opinion on the notion of a North American Currency (the "AMERO", as it's being called on the grassy knoll). Desperate times call for desperate measures by desperate people and sadly enough, nothing would surprise me anymore.
- I will continue to offer that the notion of a "seismic readjustment" vibes my antennae. In that scenario, we'll wake up one morning and the credit, equity, currency and commodity markets will be jolted back towards a state of equilibrium.
- For a long time, I was the most bearish guy in the room. That's no longer the case as the wizard has been exposed for all to see. With the whole world on the Depression Train, one must wonder which way the path of maximum frustration will pave.
- I'm no Pollyanna-we've got a lot of work to do-but I'm most certainly warming up to financial assets as a function of time and price, which are painful yet necessary pills that were long overdue.
Just as the Internet prophecy proved true (but not without a tech crash), so too will the notion of globalization, but not before debt destruction.
- The risk? OK, I'll say it. WW3. History teaches us that global conflicts are bred from economic hardship and that potential is higher than most folks think. Heck, some would argue that it already started in March, 2003.
- Two words for Hank Paulson: "Paper trade." Seriously dude, I empathize with the magnitude of this mess but we need proactive leadership, not reactive rationalization.
- The reaction to news is always more important than the news itself. And yes, I'm speaking to the fact that Intel (INTC) is flattish following last night's bed messing.
- What exactly is proper taxi hailing etiquette? I was standing on the corner yesterday-arm raised-and some woman walks in front of me and puts her hand up as a cab waited on the other side of the traffic light. I gently communicated that I was waiting for the cab (and about to offer that we share it) when she broke into a sprint, ran across the Street and grabbed it.
- For some strange reason, this column kept popping into my crowded keppe so I figured I'd share it with ye faithful.
- S&P 840 looms and everyone-and I mean everyone-is using that level as a stop-loss. That means one of three things. One, we don't get there. Two, we blow through it and snap back HARD. Three, Sayonara Sally.
- The more times a level is tested, the weaker it becomes (either way). I will say this, however, I had the exact same sense at S&P 775 in 2003 and we know how that turned out.
- The difference? In 2003, credit was quietly improving behind the scenes. Today, one could argue the opposite is true (LIBOR and other symptoms notwithstanding). Something to keep in the back of your keppe as we find our way.
- I know what you're thinking."Gee, thanks Scoop. We're either going higher, lower then higher or lower--nice value added." I share this for a reason, however, and that's for Minyans to "see all sides" before risking hard earned coin.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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