Fed Slashes Interest Rates; Nothing Happens

By Andrew Jeffery Dec 17, 2008 1:15 pm
Credit markets still frozen; consumers still pulling back.
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You can't say they didn't try.

Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's drastic moves aimed at jumpstarting lending, highlighted by dropping interest rates to nil yesterday, just aren't working. To be sure, conditions are better than they were just months ago during the height of the financial panic, but a normally functioning credit market is likely still months away.

Bloomberg reports banks are still hoarding cash and shunning loans from their counterparts around the world, preferring instead to borrow from the Fed directly. The interbank lending markets are basically nonexistent.

The spread between LIBOR -- the London Interbank Offer Rate, which measures what big banks like JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) charge one another for loans -- and Treasury bills still 6 times wider than it was last June.

Companies, specifcally ones with less-than-stellar credit ratings, are paying record amounts to borrow from skittish bond investors. In fact, never before have buyers of corporate debt demanded more yield on their investments, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

As Minyanville's Kevin Depew is apt to say, back on Main Street, everyday Americans "are getting shot from both sides."

Each time the Fed lowers interest rates, savers earn less on the money they sock away in the bank. This, combined with our ballooning national debt and struggling economy, are torpedoing the dollar, which has a punitive effect on those responsible enough to shy away from immediately parting with every penny they earn.

Washington is sending a clear message that the only way out of this mess is precisely what got us here in the first place: More spending. By providing paltry returns on savings and continuing to debase the currency, regulators and lawmakers alike are punishing responsible, conservative economic actions.

The trouble -- and why these fantastic efforts to rain money down on our broken economy will ultimately fail -- is that years of robust spending were driven by free and easy access to credit. Artificially low interest rates, loose lending guidelines, and a social mood that fostered spend-happy trips to the mall are a thing of the past.

Try though they may, bureaucrats cannot squeeze blood from the proverbial turnip. They spent the past 20 years hammering away at it, until finally the poor root couldn't take any more. It rolled over, returning to its shallow hole in the earth, to wait for brighter days.

The American consumer has followed suit.
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(4)
2008-12-17 14:11:32
Bureaurocrats
Appointed by politicians who are elected by us... the trail obviously leads to where the buck stops -- us (with THE Buck stopping short of us).

No magic solutions available in the real world, however politicians don't reside there so a lot of things that have never worked in the past will / have been tried as well as a lot of new things that won't work. That adds up to a big expense that somebody elses' grandkids will pay for.

As Long John Silver said, "Thems that dies'll be the lucky ones".


2008-12-17 15:42:20
cheap money no more
Well not exactly true - IF YOU DON'T NEED IT THEN YOU CAN HAVE some - just a little.

I spoke with a mortgage banker today who is offering 30 year fixed at 4.75%

but

he said that only 1 in 10 MAYBE qualifies.

factors to consider
1. absolute proof of income
2. debt to income ratios which they like = less than 35%, 30% better
3. property is worth amount needed to refinance

While I could qualify, my DTI could be to high for them - I have several rental properties and they only count 75% of it as INCOME and then only 35% of it to qualify.

So while I have HUGE CASH positions, they don't care

I'll keep my 4.25% equity line and when I get a loan paid off I will lend it out again at 15-18% + 5 points or more

Hey I got to get compensated for RISK

I turned down a 14% note today!!
2008-12-17 18:08:01
We are all seeing tremendous market forces...
attempting to force higher interest rates. In fact higher rates are what is needed. Savings MUST increase; to do so, a rate of return giving a reasonable likelihood of being greater than inflation is needed. Simple, really.

The government actions to date are delusional. Massively wrong. Incredibly destructive. This is going to end very badly indeed, and not just for our grandchildren. A few years is more like it.
2008-12-17 18:55:12
TED spread lowest in three months
You complain about the TED spread being 6x higher than last June. Besides being a bit off in the figures, using either numbers from June 2007 (3x) or June 2008 (2x), the spread is the lowest it's been in three months. Regardless, it is clear that the economic situation is different from 6 or 18 months ago. Instead of comparing nominal levels of this figure, you could have compared the change from a day ago, before the FED statement came out. You would see that the spread dropped quite dramatically from 1.82 to 1.57 to the lowest level since 9/12 (a day when the Dow was at 11,400).
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