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Random Thoughts: Will Snapper Arrive?


Banks and breadth may lead the upside try.

  • Our ultimate destination isn't as important as the path that we take to get there. Along those lines, I nibbled on some exposure this morning for a day trade and was quickly stopped out and took some small lumps. I haven't had so much fun since:

    I stuck my left hand in a blender.
    6:30 AM this morning as I was getting beaten by a Bulgarian black belt.
    3) My tryout as the Nutty Buddy Athletic Supporter spokesman.

  • Do I get frustrated after getting stopped out only to see my position reverse back into the profit zone? Does a chicken have lips? Of course I do-it's human nature. Those same mechanics have saved me numerous times throughout my career and I woulda been wiped out a long time ago without them. Discipline over conviction.

  • Was Bear Stearns (BSC) a meaningful bottom? The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Along those lines, watch Citigroup (C) (Meredith Whitney, #5 on our Power List, quadrupled her loss estimate) and Deutsche Bank (DB) (warning that the full year profit goal could be at risk) for clues.

  • Investor's Intelligence bullishness (30.9% to 36.7%) had about as big a jump as I can remember (which, of course, isn't saying much). It's still quite low on an absolute basis--and has plenty of room to run--but it speaks to the shift in sentiment.

  • It's also worth noting that individuals (as measured by the AAII) remain bum and bummer. Only 25% of those surveyed were bullish, which is mighty despondent. Both beg the question: Where are we in the denial-migration-panic trifecta?

  • What do I make of the economic numbers? Old news. The market, as a discounting mechanism, has long ago priced in the current headlines. That's one of the reasons the debate on a recession is an academic one.

  • Breadth is bunk (2:1 negative), the financials are funky (not the reaction to news that Hoofy wanted to see), big beta has a quarter-end bang for the buck bid, the dollar continues to break down (when will someone yell Uncle, Sam?) as energy and metals are benefiting in kind.

  • It feels like Snapper has one more shot at redemption today. Watch B&B (banks and breadth) for relative traction during that attempt. That'll paint the picture for the other side of the hump.

  • Wow, the easy trade in crude really was back to par ($100), eh?

  • The deadline for the NCAA Championship Sweepstakes is 4:00 EST on Friday. So you know and good luck to y'all.

  • See both sides, Minyans. Credit Default Risk is at a six week low as the rubber band continues stretch the structural metric.

  • My tape thoughts as I ready to selfishly scoot (I'm out tomorrow and Friday)? The Minx had every excuse to fail yesterday and the bears have ample ammunition again today. Watch our tells and read our leaves but, hands over eyes, we seemingly have room up to resistance (S&P 1380-1405 and DJIA 12,800).

  • Fare ye well into the bell and through the rest of the week. I'll see YOU on the other side of the weekend.


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