Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Random Thoughts: Will Snapper Arrive?

By

Banks and breadth may lead the upside try.

PrintPRINT
  • Our ultimate destination isn't as important as the path that we take to get there. Along those lines, I nibbled on some exposure this morning for a day trade and was quickly stopped out and took some small lumps. I haven't had so much fun since:

    1)
    I stuck my left hand in a blender.
    2)
    6:30 AM this morning as I was getting beaten by a Bulgarian black belt.
    3) My tryout as the Nutty Buddy Athletic Supporter spokesman.

  • Do I get frustrated after getting stopped out only to see my position reverse back into the profit zone? Does a chicken have lips? Of course I do-it's human nature. Those same mechanics have saved me numerous times throughout my career and I woulda been wiped out a long time ago without them. Discipline over conviction.

  • Was Bear Stearns (BSC) a meaningful bottom? The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Along those lines, watch Citigroup (C) (Meredith Whitney, #5 on our Power List, quadrupled her loss estimate) and Deutsche Bank (DB) (warning that the full year profit goal could be at risk) for clues.

  • Investor's Intelligence bullishness (30.9% to 36.7%) had about as big a jump as I can remember (which, of course, isn't saying much). It's still quite low on an absolute basis--and has plenty of room to run--but it speaks to the shift in sentiment.

  • It's also worth noting that individuals (as measured by the AAII) remain bum and bummer. Only 25% of those surveyed were bullish, which is mighty despondent. Both beg the question: Where are we in the denial-migration-panic trifecta?

  • What do I make of the economic numbers? Old news. The market, as a discounting mechanism, has long ago priced in the current headlines. That's one of the reasons the debate on a recession is an academic one.

  • Breadth is bunk (2:1 negative), the financials are funky (not the reaction to news that Hoofy wanted to see), big beta has a quarter-end bang for the buck bid, the dollar continues to break down (when will someone yell Uncle, Sam?) as energy and metals are benefiting in kind.

  • It feels like Snapper has one more shot at redemption today. Watch B&B (banks and breadth) for relative traction during that attempt. That'll paint the picture for the other side of the hump.

  • Wow, the easy trade in crude really was back to par ($100), eh?

  • The deadline for the NCAA Championship Sweepstakes is 4:00 EST on Friday. So you know and good luck to y'all.

  • See both sides, Minyans. Credit Default Risk is at a six week low as the rubber band continues stretch the structural metric.

  • My tape thoughts as I ready to selfishly scoot (I'm out tomorrow and Friday)? The Minx had every excuse to fail yesterday and the bears have ample ammunition again today. Watch our tells and read our leaves but, hands over eyes, we seemingly have room up to resistance (S&P 1380-1405 and DJIA 12,800).

  • Fare ye well into the bell and through the rest of the week. I'll see YOU on the other side of the weekend.


R.P.

< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

PrintPRINT
 
Featured Videos

WHAT'S POPULAR IN THE VILLE