Random Thoughts: Now Yous Can't Leave!
It looks like we're past the point of no return.
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also The Age of Austerity, The Citi Pity Party and Magic Mountain.
Now Yous Can't Leave! - 2:10 pm
Remember that scene in A Bronx Tale when Sonny locks the door on the bikers?
Remember the look on their face when they realized they couldn't leave--even if they wanted to?
Hoofy just walked by my turret with a similar look on his face, almost as if he suddenly realized he passed the point of no return.
To be clear, I don't profess to know which way this process of price discovery plays out. That's the surreal part of this whole situation. Nobody--and I mean nobody--has ever seen this before.
Some top-line vibes as we together find our way:
- The path of maximum frustration, to be sure, is that we just spent hundreds of billions of dollars and the market continues lower. That's the nightmare scenario: pissed off people, good money after bad and political retribution.
What remains to be seen, obviously, is whether we have a relief rally in the interim and what that pop looks like.
I will echo thoughts offered here in the 'Ville that we'll likely see a coordinated global rate cut as early as Monday (if not before).
Big Ben just said that the Fed will use all powers at their disposal to mitigate the crisis. hanks Scoop--we kinda, sorta figured that out already.
The standout action? You mean other than the (flattish) dollar? The homies, which didn't participate in the lift. I wonder when they'll be added to the short sale list?
For that matter, I truly wonder whether that ban will be lifted?
Risk management over reward chasing, discipline over conviction, substance over style.
And smile, please, it could be worse. It can always be worse.
- Equities are thermometers but credit is the backbone.
- Seeing both sides--always see both sides--a probe lower is required if a rally is to arrive. That, along with the "very best efforts" of everyone in the government, is the bull case at present.
- I just spoke to someone who said to me "We passed the bailout bill--why isn't the market rallying?" That's precisely what concerns me about this whole mess. Conventional wisdom is rarely rewarded.
- That works both ways, we know, for when the "panic" phase arrives, it'll be time to load the boat.
- Remain conscious of the fact global rate cuts await. I'm not sure they'll "matter," in and of themselves, but they're likely in the pipe.
- Keep an eye on the Citi (C) Pity party. The stock is down 17%.
- Bank America (BAC) (-5%) and JP Morgan (JPM) (-6%) are also laggy, lest you don't see it, and that warrants a mention.
- I love to trade but I'm not touching 'em as I can't identify an advantageous edge. I snuck in and out of an "easy" trade (Weatherford (WFT)) but my singular attention is focused on trying to assimilate, synthesize and communicate what's happening with ye faithful.
- Just what the world needs, a $3 million gold statue of Kate Moss. Anyone wanna wager a bet as to when that's melted?
- Are we there yet?
Come Together, Right Now, Over Me. - 3:45 pm
I've been going back and forth with Television's JeffMacke® on Instant Message, as we do most days, discussing the state of affairs, the implications for the markets and the media coverage thereof. These are tense times, to be sure, with a ton of societal acrimony as points of recognition arrive in an accelerated pace.
We've been in violent agreement on a few issues. First, it's edgeless to carry needless risk in this environment (that doesn't mean, of course, you can't surgically strike). Second, the Miracle pre-game speech is one of the best scenes in cinematic history. Finally, there is an absolute need for Minyans to stick together and reclaim the credibility that was supposed to be the backbone of our country. It's not going to be an "easy" path but prosperity awaits on the other side of the ride.
But prosperity isn't really the point of this post. It's about unity and perseverance and perspective. It's about making the world a better place through our actions, our words--even our body language. It's about sharing what you know, appreciating what you have and communicating your gratitude as a matter of course. There is only one way for us to "win" and that's to rebuild our nation, and our world, from the inside out.
Brick by brick. Person by person. Minyan by Minyan.
Fare ye well into the bell and have a mindful weekend. You've most certainly earned it.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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