Buzz Bits: Markets Decline After Fed
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights.
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Bullets Over Broadway! - Todd Harrison - 2:31 pm
- The first move? Higher, to S&P 1404.57. Too easy?
- What did moi do? Sold a little Microsoft (MSFT) (through the lens of market exposure, not as it relates to the Yahoo (YHOO) deal) and bought a few Merrill (MER) puts. Todd-Lots R' Us as the smoke clears and traders steer. I'm being careful not to trade for trading sake.
- Woah, I think I actually just heard myself getting fatter.
- Market breadth* hasn't budged from it's 2:1 positive posture.
- The risk to the short side in gold and crude can be summed up in two words. Iran.
- Man, I wish this tape was easy like Sunday morning!
Positions in MSFT, MER
The Zuch and Riverbed - Sean Udall - 2:26 pm
Prof. Zucchi and I are both on top of bandwidth growth but we come at it differently.
Such said, Riverbed (RVBD) doesn't give him the warm fuzzies, while I say it's now stuck in show me mode. Probably about the same theme but differing context.
In fact our only big difference is that I don't hate the option repricing. Reason being is simply that RVBD is in the talent acquisition and retention game. So it needs to do what it will do to keep its R&D edge. This sort of thing can't happen every time the stock drops, but given recent market conditions I don't have a big issue here as a shareholder. Moreover, I would be a lot more worried about the stock if talent was walking across the street.
Otherwise, I think the Zuch is on point with his RVBD and Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) commentary.
I would equate RVBD 2008 to Juniper (JNPR) in 2006. At that point everyone and their mother was saying JNPR was broken, its core router edge was lost and new product growth wasn't going to work. I contended that JNPR was firmly in show me mode and undervalued, while its competitive position would firm up again. Time will tell if this thesis holds for RVBD, (as it did for JNPR), but that's my best guess currently.
Also, to summarize my Savvis (SVVS) comments from earlier, I think the stock is undervalued anywhere south of $18. I bought a partial position and will look to add over time. However, I'm not expecting a quick hit here. I'm legging into a valuation situation here.
Position in RVBD, SVVS
Snapper Within a Snapper - Jeffrey Cooper
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) sets-up as a good risk to reward short on the snapper back from this morning's spike down.
Why? Monday left a short term sell signal and Tuesday looks like a classic pause (paws?) day before pulling back further.
See the 10 minute chart of today and the daily for the year below.
Click to enlarge
Click to enlarge
The big picture may be a snapback to resistance while the short term suggests a retracement.
Position in DECK
Hoofy n' Boo - Terry Woo - 11:40 am
A few updates from this morning's Two Ways to Play:
From the Bull Pen:
Bulls see a breakout in the Real Estate Index Fund (IYR) above the 200-DMA; sell-stops below $70 or $66 for those with a higher risk profile.
IYR is trading +0.29% to $70.31.
- Bulls still see a series of higher highs and lower lows in the financial ETF (XLF); sell-stops can be set below $25.50 on upside tries
XLF is trading +0.33% to $26.78.
From the Bear Cave:
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