Trading Radar: Central Banking Decisions and GDP

By Michael Sedacca Dec 02, 2011 4:45 pm

Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.



Next week the England, Australia and European central banks will release important rate decisions that could potentially have drastic effects on the market. On Wednesday of this week, we had a cooordinated central bank effort to ease liquidity within the banking system. However, the solvency issues still remain. It is estimated that the ECB will ease interest rates by 50bps, although some analysts believe it may be 25bps. An easing of interest rates should continue the drive lower in the euro.The Bank of England will also announce asset purchases, which has been a major catalyst for continuing growth in the most indebted country in the world.

GDP numbers also come out next week, and the idea of an economical contraction in Europe has fed the continued debt-insolvency chatter that has pushed markets lower. Germany is set to auction off a large amount of debt next week, and this should be paid attention to consideringthe last three auctions have failed, creating added uncertainty to liquidity fears. With the added liquidity injected into the system from the central banks, in theory these auctions should go through smoothly.

Important earnings reports to keep an eye out for include Costco (COST), Ciena (CIEN) and Autozone (AZO).


Monday, December 5

US Economics

10:00 ISM non-Manf Composite – consensus 53.5
10:00 Factory Orders – consensus -0.3%
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes/bonds in 10-20 year range
11:30 U.S. to sell $27b 3-month and $29b 6-month bills
2:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes in 6-8 year range

Global Economics

08:55 EUR German PMI
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales
5:15 Germany to sell EU3b 6-month bills
9:00 France to sell EU3.5b 84-day, Eu2b 189-day, EU2b 343-day bills

Earnings

Before: DG
After: NWPX, PBY


Tuesday, December 6

US Economics

10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism – consensus 41.8
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b notes/bonds in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 U.S. to sell 4-week bills

Global Economics

03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
08:15 CHF CPI
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone GDP
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders
14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Earnings

Before: AZO, BMO, LDR, LQDT, TOL, TTC
After: AVAV, CASY, FRAN, MW, MIND, OXM, PLAB, POWL, SAI, VRA


Wednesday, December 7

US Economics

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
3:00 Consumer Credit – consensus $7.0B
11:00 Fed to sell $1b-$1.5b TIPs in 1 to 3-year range

Global Economics

00:30 AUD GDP
05:00 JPY Leading Index
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
09:30 GBP Industrial Production
10:00 EUR ECB Announces Allotment in 3-month dollar tender
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
23:50 JPY Trade Balance
5:15 Germany to sell EU5b 5-yr notes
5:30 Portugal to sell up to Eu1.25b 105-day bills

Earnings

Before: GU, MTN
After: GIII, GEF, PSUN


Thursday, December 8

US Economics

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 Continuing Claims
10:00 Wholesale Inventories
12:00 Flow of Funds 3Q
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5b notes in 9 to 10-yr range
2:00 Fed to sell $8-$8.75b in 11-year range

Global Economics

00:30 AUD Employment Change
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate
12:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision
13:15 CAD Housing Starts
15:30 CAD Bank of Canada Publishes Financial System Review
23:50 JPY GDP

Earnings

Before: BF.B, CMN, CIEN, CONN, COST, HITK, KFY, LAYN, MPR, MEI, SFD
After: ALOG, CMTL, COO, ESL, FLOW, GBDC, HWD, PLL, PPHM, SEAC, SWHC


Friday, December 9

US Economics

08:30 Trade Balance – consensus -$43.0B
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence – consensus 65.5

Global Economics

CNY Industrial Production
CNY Retail Sales
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
02:00 CNY CPI
07:00 EUR German CPI
09:30 GBP PPI

Earnings

Before: FGP, FCEA, KMGB, TITN

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