Randoms: Two Sides to Every Coin
Does tape reflect a light-volume pullback, or reaction to risk?
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Answers I Really Wanna Know - 1:13
- Where there's smoke, there's AIG (AIG)?
- Y'all see the pep in Mother Morgan's (MS) step (+4%)?
- Why is she smiling?
- Because she's not left handed?
- Hasn't humanity and perspective been woven into the Minyan DNA for as long as there has been a 'Ville?
- Societal acrimony? What societal acrimony?
- BLT Popover or Frozen Hot Chocolate?
- What would you say if I said to you, "The market just ran 25%, what's the healthiest possible action?"
- Sideways consolidation perhaps?
- While I'm firmly in the "bear market rally" camp, isn't it important to always see the other side?
- Given the unknown that is earnings and the "any day now" that is General Motors (GM), how does one justify overnight risk if you're not getting paid to take it?
Farm Boy, Fetch me a Bid! - 2:18
- We often say that the mechanics of the swing trump the results of the at-bat. Case in point, I faded (read: bought) some financials this morning and trailed the stop higher. As a result of the Snapper attempt, my trigger climbed to the other side of my entry level (a nickel below in some cases, always honest). The point? You can do anything as long as you're disciplined (and no, as of this post, I've yet to pull the rip cord).
- Nobody is right all the time, hence the importance of stylistic approach and the necessity of a trusted process. Given our oft-stated view that this is a cyclical bear- market rally, one could argue that any upside try in and around these levels is dancing between the elephants.
- Society is a sum of the parts, which is worth remembering when having the depression discussion. Social mood and risk appetites shape financial markets, not the other way around. And no, we're not bandwagon types--we said the same thing while we were trading at all-time highs (not that it really matters now).
- I have serious Princess Bride on the brain and I can't make it stop. Do you think that's some sort of allergy or something? They just don't make 'em like Andre the Giant anymore....
- Come on now, smile--it could be worse. And for alotta folks, it already is.
The Two Sides of the Coin - 3:09
And here we are again, snuggling again between the rock and a hard place.
Hoofy will offer that this is a light volume pullback, reverse dandruff is in place in the S&P (as long as 780-800 holds) and the stealth traction in the financials (with the notable exception of Deutsche Bank (DB)) will be an obvious tell with the benefit of hindsight.
Boo, for his part, will argue that risk (earnings, structural, geopolitical) is high given the elevated field position following the sharp rally into earnings.
Fun stuff, right? See both sides. Always see both sides.
As I make calls around the street, playing ketchup with my peeps, the focus is on 1) taxes 2) survival 3) CC Sabathia 4) how 'un-fun' this business has become.
To that, I reply 1)"Be careful for what you wish--you could be getting money back," 2)"Take it one day at a time," 3)"Yankee deflation" and 4) "It feels like the early '70's, or so I'm told."
I can't say I'm surprised by the societal comeuppance but proactively writing about it and living through it (in the heart of
Yikes-o-rama? Yeah, I suppose. But I'll tie this up with two vibes. First, I could be very wrong (and to be honest, I hope I am) and second, the destination we arrive at pales in comparison to the path that we take to get there. There will be winners in the new world and our goal, as Minyans, is to be amongst them.
I'm gonna wrap this up so I can meld with Ike, get my MarketWatch column in by deadline, sneak in a haircut (please charge me by the follicle), put my therapist in therapy and join Television's JeffMacke® for a fat steak, some fine wine and a celebratory hug on his big four-OH.
Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and remember that the definition of an investment should never be a trade gone awry.
May peace be with you.
In memory of our fallen friend and trusted colleague, Bennet Sedacca, 100% of the donations made to the RP Foundation through April will be channeled to philanthropic endeavors consistent with the RP mission, working closely with the Sedacca clan in the distribution of those funds. We thank you kindly for your support as we strive to effect positive change in the lives of children.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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