Dancing with the Talking "KohnHeads"?
Descartes had it all wrong. It is not all about what you think. It is more important to know how you feel.
And May God Bless the "KohnHeads," Every One
Financial culture seems to be "dancing" again and markets are enjoying a reprise of the reflation paradigm. It is about the ez-speak from Donald Kohn and his other Bips Brethren. May god bless their bleeding bips hearts. If only easy money were really that easy! If the Fed is blithely trotting into a bips-box-canyon?
Please don't do the bidding of bonds. My firm's Semiotics Bond Sentiment registered a rare 100% bullish reading last week at the same time that Semiotics Stock sentiment registered a rare 0% bullish. It was an unusual contratrian torque. The reversals in financials, forex and treasury markets signal equity upside which should last into 12/11-ish, synchronistic with the FOMC meeting. Look for a right shoulder to form but keep your shoulder pads handy since the next best-buy may not arrive until 2010. The reflation trade is on again. Long live reflation. Happy days are here again. Happy holidays to the KohnHeads!
The Tag of Markets: Is it Reflation, or Recession?
Mr. Market is playing tag with market memes. It was reflation, then it was recession. Now, it is back to reflation again. What will it really be? Well, it could become both, in time. Is stagflation slouching towards reality? The near term market profile, has been written… by the KohnHeads who say "Read my Bips."
Crude got a bit popular at 100 bucks-a-barrel anchor. It is now crashing and could collapse all the way to 80 bucks-a-barrel. So what! Are market participants ready for $300 bucks-a-barrel and gold at $3,000 an ounce? No, not now, not today, but much sooner than they think! You may have heard about a commodity bull market and you may be aware of our thesis for a "Repricing of the Planet," but you cognize that this may be the greatest move in human history? The prospect of more easy money is just another chapter in the liquidity dance.
Cautiously Pessimistic Becoming Pessimistically Optimistic
Financial culture seems to be taking the recent equity uptrade as a Meta-Mirrior-Meme (same story, same correction, same recovery?) of the August break and a rally back towards the top of the range. Since the Fed heads have switched reflation back on again, the Asian equity paradigm may also be "on" again. We were "cautiously pessimistic," but maybe it is appropriate near term to be "pessimistically optimistic."
In Sum, Ergo Cogito?
And, how many times can the KohnHeads ease before they have really blown it? The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind. Bob Dylan and Ben Bernake may not be worlds apart. No one knows. Don't be too invested in rationality. Descartes had it all wrong. It is not all about what you think (Cogito). It is more important to know how you feel.
This is the season for feeling our feelings. Remember, money is very interesting but it isn't everything. Far from it.
Keep money matters at arms length. Keep your close ones closer.
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