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Past the Point of No Return


For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...


She cuts you once, she cuts you twice
But still you believe
The wound is so fresh you can taste the blood
But you don't have strength to leave.
(Billy Joel)

The FOMC met yesterday and, on cue, snipped both the discount rate and fed funds.

The good news, I suppose, is that some axioms (such as the first move after the FOMC announcement is typically the false move) remain in play. The south side soiree was short-lived before the dollar got hit and (pick an asset class) smiled in kind. Equities, crude, metals, soybeans, corn, orange juice. One and all, all for one.

We've watched the world unfold in real-time over the last five plus years in Minyanville. It was--and continues to be--the most interesting stretch in the history of the financial markets. I hold myself to task for seeing many of these agendas but perhaps not profiting as I could or should have. I own that, but not much else for more than a trade.

I must confess something. As I was contemplating what to write on yesterday's Buzz, I leaned back in my chair and felt a profound sense of sadness. Yes, sadness. Emotion is the enemy when trading but the feeling had nothing to do with a P&L. It was more like... how can I say this... we've reached a point of no return. We may have been there long ago but, well, it sorta sunk in.

I stand to gain a lot from continued buoyancy along the path to hyper-inflation (the devil we know vs. the devil we don't) . But this isn't really about me. It never has been. It's about "us", those who are charging ahead, pun intended, with a false sense of security. I've seen manias last much longer than I could conceive and respect that this, too, could last. But I also believe that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

And that's what's scary. Even on Halloween.

Random Thoughts

  • Yesterday was mutual fund year-end for alotta players and sector agendas will likely shift.

  • That S&P "double top with a lower high" is still in play…but not by much.

  • Respect, but never defer, to the price action.

  • Holy cow, it's November already?

  • As a man, I'll never know the rigors of child labor. But I will say that giving birth to MV Kids (coming soon) can't be that far off.

  • I'm gonna be in late today (yes-you caught me, I wrote this last night) as I've got some people to see and balancing to do. Fare ye well, Minyans, and I'll see you on the Buzz.


Holiday Festivus is here! Come join us and support the Ruby Peck Foundation For Children's Education at an old-fashioned Southern-style hoe-down in the heart of New York City on December 7th. Click the image below to learn more!

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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