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Past the Point of No Return

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For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction...

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She cuts you once, she cuts you twice
But still you believe
The wound is so fresh you can taste the blood
But you don't have strength to leave.
(Billy Joel)



The FOMC met yesterday and, on cue, snipped both the discount rate and fed funds.

The good news, I suppose, is that some axioms (such as the first move after the FOMC announcement is typically the false move) remain in play. The south side soiree was short-lived before the dollar got hit and (pick an asset class) smiled in kind. Equities, crude, metals, soybeans, corn, orange juice. One and all, all for one.

We've watched the world unfold in real-time over the last five plus years in Minyanville. It was--and continues to be--the most interesting stretch in the history of the financial markets. I hold myself to task for seeing many of these agendas but perhaps not profiting as I could or should have. I own that, but not much else for more than a trade.

I must confess something. As I was contemplating what to write on yesterday's Buzz, I leaned back in my chair and felt a profound sense of sadness. Yes, sadness. Emotion is the enemy when trading but the feeling had nothing to do with a P&L. It was more like... how can I say this... we've reached a point of no return. We may have been there long ago but, well, it sorta sunk in.

I stand to gain a lot from continued buoyancy along the path to hyper-inflation (the devil we know vs. the devil we don't) . But this isn't really about me. It never has been. It's about "us", those who are charging ahead, pun intended, with a false sense of security. I've seen manias last much longer than I could conceive and respect that this, too, could last. But I also believe that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

And that's what's scary. Even on Halloween.

Random Thoughts

  • Yesterday was mutual fund year-end for alotta players and sector agendas will likely shift.

  • That S&P "double top with a lower high" is still in play…but not by much.

  • Respect, but never defer, to the price action.

  • Holy cow, it's November already?

  • As a man, I'll never know the rigors of child labor. But I will say that giving birth to MV Kids (coming soon) can't be that far off.

  • I'm gonna be in late today (yes-you caught me, I wrote this last night) as I've got some people to see and balancing to do. Fare ye well, Minyans, and I'll see you on the Buzz.


R.P.


Holiday Festivus is here! Come join us and support the Ruby Peck Foundation For Children's Education at an old-fashioned Southern-style hoe-down in the heart of New York City on December 7th. Click the image below to learn more!

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