Random Thoughts: The Single Best Idea
Community will help you find your way.
Editor's Note: The following was posted in real time on our premium Buzz & Banter. It's being shared here for the benefit of the Minyanville community. See also The Road Less Traveled, Save and Rate Cut and Engine Room, More Scream!
Oy Papi! - 10:22 AM
- I think I mixed Yiddish with something else in that title but I don't have time to figure it out.
- CDV (Coops DeVille) reinforced the notion of S&P 1000 needing to hold (his level is actually S&P 1005 but I draw lines with crayons in this market).
- That first Snapper was--dare I say--the easy trade. I didn't scoop as much as I would have liked (and pared that add) but the genie is busy as far as wishes are concerned.
- This next step is gonna be a doozy.
- While I know the quick trigga isn't for everyone, I share my fare because I care.
- Bank America (BAC) $22 is the most important level in the marketplace right now.
- Funny, seems like just yesterday that Countrywide $18 was the most important level in the marketplace.
- Note market internals are 2:1 negative.
- Respecting the process, I sold my QLD into this (yes, for a loss). I have other inventory and well, good traders know how to make money, great traders know how to take a loss. I'm far from a great trader but that doesn't mean I should stop trying.
- I'll be back.
Minyan Noodle - 11:26 am
Minyan Peter popped by MVHQ for an uber-quick chat and chew. Some of the topics discussed, in no particular order included:
The point of recognition has arrived on a global basis like a clap of thunder. It's not so much what people are doing, it's what they're not doing. They're not traveling. They're not spending. They won't to be viewed as "well off" while so many others are suffering. Indeed, as we wrote last week, it's the Age of Austerity.
- NYC is the center of the storm and will likely stay that way for the next five years.
- Sidebar: Last night at Project ALS, Chris Rock said to Ben Stiller "I don't even like my kids cause they're rich. I never liked rich kids. Now, the nanny's kids--they're cool!"
- Side-Side Bar: Perspective check! The stories last night were tearful reminders that there is indeed a difference between loss and loss.
- It's no longer a question if we'll crash. The credit markets have crashed and the process of equity price discovery is permeating.
- Bank America (BAC) $22 is a massively important level. It's our collective sense that there was a "help wanted" sign in getting this print on the tape in the first place.
- Debt destruction is the ultimate and unavoidable destination. How we get there remains to be seen.
- This is an incredibly powerful opportunity for those who successfully navigate it. I cannot stress this enough. We often say "to go through this, we must get through this" and for those that do--every single Minyan, quite hopefully--there will be a recovery that resembles a pot of gold and Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory.
- It's gonna take some time. Time, and price.
- As we mused in the last Buzz, the next step will indeed be a doozy... either way. Peter concurs that there could be a sharp rally but is of the view that it will be tertiary as we continue down the path of debt destruction. I'm in lockstep agreement (just tradin').
- Two weeks ago, I bought the FXY (Japanese Yen) as the first bailout bill went to a vote, but sold it when it failed. Mea culpa on not buying it back as that seems to be the clear winner--and one of the few--that the smartest folks I speak with can agree on. And yes, I will be buying it... in time.
- We were in violent agreement on the necessity of community as we find our way. He spoke glowingly of the 'Ville, offering that looking at the spectrum through multiple prisms has proved invaluable to his process. This dude was the Treasurer at what was one of the biggest banks in the country (he left a few years ago). That level of praise from someone of his intelligence is validation of what we've collectively built. Thank you for that. (Note: He, and the rest of us, will be at Festivus.)
As an aside, and while I have you, please note that I will be stepping away from the fray for a few hours to tend to Minyan matters (a good thing). Having traded around some risk (including paring the QLD), my exposure is focused on the energy space (which is getting jack hammered). I like what I own and, after "hoarding cash" the better part of this year, I'm in the position to put some money to work, which I've done. Not everyone shares my risk profile and time horizon, I know, so please take this shake with a grain of salt.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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