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Daily Commodity Spot: Euro Opens Floodgates for New Down Leg


A breakdown of the five most active commodity futures from today.

I maintain opinions for various futures markets. Following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front-month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Daily Highlight: The euro's break back under 1.3020 and 1.3000 either has opened the floodgates to a new downleg, or else Tuesday will reject Monday's weakness with a vengeance. The currency is vulnerable to entering freefall, which a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would all but confirm.

Eurodollar March Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) -- The euro's probes above 1.3035 since Thursday have retraced to dip back under 1.3020 support. Breaking under 1.3020 now puts into play a probe under last week's 1.2945 low. Closing under 1.2955 would confirm the downleg is extending to its next target(s) at 1.2650 and potentially to 1.2345.

Gold February Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) -- The bounce into week's end was not expected to gain traction. That didn't prevent Monday's early-morning $13 spike up to 1611.50. But it was retraced soon enough back down to and through the bounce's 1595.00-1598.00 origin. The attraction under 1589.00 to fill the gap back back down to Thursday's 1575.00 close should continue to inhibit bounces, or at least prevent them from gaining traction. Meanwhile there is room for one more bounce to fresh highs testing 1620.00. I would not position long for a bounce, but would consider fading it.

Silver March Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) -- Having fulfilled the minimum target of last week's inverted Head & Shoulders, the pattern was vulnerable to resuming the decline. In fact, Monday's gap down under Friday's 29.30 low extended to almost 28.70. Closing any lower Tuesday would put into play new lows targeting 27.90 and potentially 27.05.

30-Year Treasury March Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) -- Friday's test of the 145-14 target had room for noise above it up to 145-28. It was probed up to 146-08. Back under 145-22 would suggest a bigger dip underway targeting 145-08. But a close under 144-12 is still the minimum requirement to launch a new downleg.

Crude Oil March Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) -- No change to the 95.25 buy signal that must be recovered on a closing basis to rob sellers of their traction.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at

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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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