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Daily Commodity Spot: Currencies Retrace, Hold Friday's Gains


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight Currencies began the day retracing all of Friday's gains. They ended the day holding that retracement. The two-week-old corrective moves remain intact, but their ends are nearing.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Last week ended with two consecutive lower closes. The setup all but requires a third, but not necessarily the next day. A lower consecutive close was likely, since currencies tend to mimic Friday's action on Monday mornings. But Monday's open gapped up to Friday's 79.52 high nonetheless. It was an "inside day" that developed entirely within Friday's range, so buyers did not gain traction for their efforts. And so long as 79.85 is not recovered above, the gap back to Friday's 78.99 close will need to be filled.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Friday's ~1.3100 low was retested instantly by Monday's gap down from Friday's 1.3214 close. This was in spite of Sunday night's high having probed above Friday's high. The balance of the session ranged narrowly off of Friday's lows. While avoiding a lower close did keep alive the potential for resuming the rally to its 1.3333 target, closing under Monday's lows would not be helpful.

Feb Contract GC; (GLD)
Monday's gap down never extended lower, and was shallow compared to Friday's range. But despite coming close, session highs never filled the gap back to Friday's 1734.50 close. The potential remains alive for fresh highs testing 1746.50 so long as 1724.50 holds as support.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Gapping down at Monday's open to test prior relative lows at 33.25 never extended lower. The balance of the day ranged sideways, barely touching Friday's close. That much pessimism without gaining traction keeps alive the potential to probe fresh highs before a more durable downleg could begin.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Recovering all the way back up to 143-04 last week required the drop to resume without delay Monday - or else extend higher. And higher means potentially retesting the 145-10 highs. Monday's open did gap up, and extend higher to probe 144-28 (up to 145-03) which is a proxy for 145-10. Closing under their 144 05 interim high would signal momentum already reversing down.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Monday's gap down and close under 99.40-99.75 suggests that Friday's drop has gained traction. Monday's interim high already filled the gap back to Friday's close, so there should be no further delay to extending down if the reversal is valid. Any delay would suggest otherwise.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Monday's high retested the rally's 2.81 target. Nevertheless, it is still too soon to break higher, as the pattern is still consolidating last week's volatility.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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