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Daily Commodity Spot: Gold Reacts Down Big From Big Resistance, but Where Is Support?


A breakdown of the day's seven most active commodity futures.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight One day following gold's quick rally to its bounce target, a deep reaction down suggests a bigger downleg may be beginning. But, one more piece of evidence must come…

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Wednesday's narrow ranging around Tuesday's close helped to confirm that sellers gained no traction for their efforts. An actual break lower is still possible, but its origin - this narrow ranging at prior lows - would require the break's recovery.

Mar Contract EC; (FXE)
Tuesday's close above 1.3200 may have put into play 1.3333. But Wednesday's narrow ranging around Tuesday's close did not confirm it. The breakout may yet extend higher anyway, but the move's unconfirmed breakout would make the move very temporary.

Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
Tuesday's test of the 1748.00 bounce target extended higher overnight to 1754.00. A dip into Wednesday's open reacted up from 1741.80 to probe above 1748.00 again. But its reaction finally got on with resuming the reversal. A drop to and through the 1740.00 sell signal tested 1726.00 and 1729.00.A new downleg is under so long as 1740.00 is not recovered through a close.

Mar Contract SI; (SLV)
Fresh highs overnight reacted down into Wednesday's open. Lower lows tested 33.75 support, but a close under 33.60 is needed to even begin triggering a new downleg underway.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Fresh lows overnight down to 141-23 recovered back up to and through 141-28 into the open. The balance of the session ranged sideways testing 142-12 resistance, barely piercing positive territory. The range could still expand up to 142-28 without robbing the current drop of its momentum.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (USO)
Tuesday's high above 99.00 used up all available room for a corrective bounce. Closing any higher would suggest a bigger rally underway. Wednesday's gap up to the 100.00 area reacted down quickly back into Tuesday's range, where the balance of the session ranged narrowly. Now a close above 100.50 is needed to signal a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG)
Ranging narrowly Wednesday between 2.44-2.51 did not gain traction in either direction. But it also further delayed a recovery, just when the recovery's further delay would start becoming bearish. Thursday's EIA report may be the last opportunity to seal a bottom and trigger a new rally leg.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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